Bank of Japan Accounts (May 10)
Lead — The desk views the latest Bank of Japan (BoJ) accounts as indicative of a continued commitment to monetary easing, which could weigh on the yen. Per the full note source, the BoJ's total assets stand at approximately ¥661.9 trillion, with significant holdings in Japanese government securities amounting to ¥530.6 trillion. This expansive balance sheet underscores the central bank's ongoing support for the economy, especially ahead of key economic indicators such as GDP growth and trade balance data due later this month.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the BoJ's substantial asset holdings reflect a sustained accommodative monetary policy, which is likely to keep the yen under pressure. The BoJ's assets include ¥441.3 billion in gold and ¥530.6 trillion in Japanese government securities, highlighting its extensive involvement in the financial markets to stimulate growth.
Additionally, the BoJ's Loan Support Program shows outstanding loans of ¥49.1 trillion, indicating an active role in supporting financial institutions. This level of intervention suggests that the central bank is not yet ready to pivot towards tightening, which could further influence yen weakness.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.08 (Mar26)
This view aligns closely with jpmorgan, which shares a similar outlook on yen depreciation, while bofa presents a more cautious stance at the lower end of the range, suggesting divergence in expectations regarding the BoJ's policy trajectory.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with our view, anticipating continued yen weakness due to the BoJ's expansive monetary policy. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary position, suggesting that the yen may not depreciate as much as anticipated, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on Japan's economic recovery.
Key indicators to watch include the upcoming GDP growth rate and balance of trade figures, which could provide further insights into the efficacy of the BoJ's policies and their impact on the yen's trajectory.
What the calendar says
With the GDP Growth Rate and Balance of Trade data set to be released on May 19, traders should remain vigilant. These indicators could significantly influence market sentiment and provide clarity on the effectiveness of the BoJ's current policies, potentially impacting USD/JPY positioning.
Key takeaways
- 01BoJ's total assets at ¥661.9 trillion indicate ongoing monetary easing.
- 02Significant holdings in government securities reflect continued support for the economy.
- 03Upcoming GDP and trade balance data could influence yen's trajectory.
- 04Market consensus leans towards yen weakness amid BoJ's accommodative stance.
Market implications
Traders should monitor USD/JPY closely as it approaches the 1.075 level, particularly with the upcoming GDP data on May 19. A miss in growth expectations could exacerbate yen weakness, while a strong print may prompt a reassessment of the BoJ's easing stance.
Bank of Japan Accounts (May 10, 2026) May 12, 2026 Bank of Japan Assets (thousand yen) Gold 441,253,409 Cash 1 431,369,516 Japanese government securities 530,646,498,522 Corporate bonds 2 1,958,202,726 Pecuniary trusts (index-linked exchange-traded funds held as trust property) 3 37,091,375,900 Pecuniary trusts (Japan real estate investment trusts held as trust property) 4 653,211,432 Loans (excluding those to the Deposit Insurance Corporation) 77,720,100,000 Foreign currency assets 5 11,731,516,334 Deposits with agents 6 5,152,475 Others 1,246,257,106 Total 661,924,937,424 Liabilities and Net Assets (thousand yen) Banknotes 116,442,696,847 Current deposits 454,312,259,984 Other deposits 7 43,911,710,795 Deposits of the government 14,308,507,979 Payables under repurchase agreements 16,698,369,722 Others 8 1,888,925,251 Provisions 10,586,442,843 Capital 100,000 Legal and special reserves 3,775,923,999 Total 661,924,937,424 Coins reserved for circulation. Includes bonds issued by real estate investment corporations. Beneficiary interests in index-linked exchange-traded funds purchased through a trust bank.
Investment equity issued by real estate investment corporations purchased through a trust bank. Foreign currency deposits held at foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements, securities issued by foreign governments, foreign currency mutual funds, and foreign currency loans, such as (1) loans by U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations against pooled collateral and (2) loans pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement to enhance the fund-provisioning measure to support strengthening the foundations for economic growth conducted through the loan support program. Deposits held at agents that conduct operations relating to treasury funds and Japanese government securities on behalf of the Bank of Japan.
These deposits are reserved for such operations. Deposits held by foreign central banks and others. Includes miscellaneous liabilities and current income (net accumulated profits).
For reports at the beginning of the fiscal year, net income for the previous fiscal year is also included prior to its appropriation. (Annex Table 1) Breakdown of Japanese government securities (thousand yen) Japanese government bonds 530,646,498,522 Treasury discount bills 0 (Annex Table 2) Loan Support Program The table below represents the loan amounts outstanding under the Bank's Loan Support Program. (thousand yen) Fund-Provisioning Measure to Support Strengthening the Foundations for Economic Growth * 598,586,080 Fund-Provisioning Measure to Stimulate Bank Lending 48,533,100,000 Total 49,131,686,080 The figure for the loans other than those pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement is included in "Loans" as Assets, and that for the loans pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement is included in "Foreign currency assets" as Assets. (Annex Table 3) Annex Table 3 (thousand yen) Loans by Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled Collateral (including funds provided under the fixed-rate method), Funds-Supplying Operation to Support Financial Institutions in Disaster Areas and Funds-Supplying Operations to Support Financing for Climate Change Responses 28,931,400,000
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Primary source
Bank of Japan Accounts (May 10)