FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 35 institutional desks. No promotion.
Per the full note by ING strategists, CEE economies are diverging in policy paths but share a broadly benign outlook. Poland holds rates steady amid easing inflation and softening growth, while the Czech Republic expands with contained CPI despite cost pressures. Hungary's post-election rally supports an easing bias with scope for summer rate cuts as risk premia fall. No high-impact events are on the calendar in the next 30 days for these jurisdictions.
The ING desk argues that Central and Eastern European economies are moving in different directions but the overall outlook remains benign. The note highlights Poland holding rates steady as inflation eases and growth softens, the Czech economy expanding with contained CPI despite cost pressures, and Hungary post-election rally supporting an easing bias.
Supporting evidence includes Poland's steady rate policy amid easing inflation and softening growth, the Czech Republic's expansion with contained CPI despite cost pressures, and Hungary's post-election rally enabling summer rate cuts as risk premia fall and inflation outlook improves.
The counterfactual rejected is a more hawkish stance in Hungary or a recession in Poland, which the desk sees as unlikely given the data trajectory.
Key takeaways
Market implications
Focus on Hungarian forint and Polish zloty as rate differentials shift. Watch for summer rate cuts in Hungary that could weaken the forint. Czech koruna may remain supported by contained inflation.
Risks to this view
A resurgence of inflation in Poland or Czech Republic could force hawkish pivots, invalidating the benign outlook. Political instability in Hungary or external shocks (e.g., energy prices) could reverse the post-election rally and delay rate cuts.
Articles CEE: Moving in all directions 10:37 Czech Republic Hungary Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The outlook for Central and Eastern Europe is broadly benign: Poland is holding rates steady as inflation eases and growth softens, the Czech economy is expanding with contained CPI despite cost pressures, and Hungary’s post-election rally supports an easing bias with scope for summer rate cuts as risk premia falls and the inflation outlook improves Frantisek Taborsky , Rafal Benecki , David Havrlant and Peter Virovacz Countries within Central and Eastern Europe are all moving in various directions, although the outlook on the whole looks relatively benign Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Frantisek Taborsky EMEA FX & FI Strategist Frantisek is an FX & FI Strategist covering EMEA markets, having joined the bank in 2022.
He provides short- and medium-term recommendations for ING's corporate and institutional client… Rafal Benecki Chief Economist, Poland Rafal Benecki is a Chief Economist at ING in Poland, joining in 2005. Prior to this, he was the head of the Economic Analysis Bureau at Millennium Bank in Warsaw. He has an MSc in Financial… David Havrlant Chief Economist, Czech Republic David joined ING in 2024 as Chief Economist for the Czech Republic.
He gained professional experience at the Czech National Bank and international institutions such as the ECB, the EC,… Peter Virovacz Chief Economist, Hungary Peter Virovacz is a Chief Economist in Hungary, joining ING in 2016. Prior to that, he has worked at Szazadveg Economic Research Institute and the Fiscal Council of Hungary. Peter studied at the… In this article Poland: Central bank to keep rates on hold this year Czech Republic: Continued expansion amid relatively modest inflation Hungary: From zero to hero
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