EUR/USD falls to fresh five-week low as dollar firms in final stretch of the week
Lead — The desk is bearish on EUR/USD, anticipating further declines as the pair has broken below the key 200-day moving average, now trading at 1.1630. Per the full note source, this marks a significant shift as the euro has been range-bound since mid-April, and the geopolitical backdrop surrounding the US-Iran conflict adds to the uncertainty. With the potential for a test of the 1.1500 mark looming, traders should remain vigilant. The consensus target suggests a bearish outlook, with key levels to monitor in the coming weeks.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a critical juncture for EUR/USD, highlighting the recent drop to 1.1630 as indicative of a broader bearish trend. The breakdown below the 200-day moving average, previously a support level, signals potential for further declines, particularly if geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.
The significance of this price action is underscored by the fact that the euro has been trapped in a range between 1.1800 and the 200-day moving average since mid-April. As noted, the current trajectory suggests a possible test of the 1.1500 level if no positive developments emerge from the Middle East over the weekend.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Key firms contributing to this outlook include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which is positioned at the upper end of the range, while bofa presents a more bearish stance at the lower end. The desk's bearish outlook is consistent with the prevailing sentiment among these firms.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with the desk's bearish perspective, anticipating further weakness in EUR/USD. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for the euro against the dollar.
Traders should also keep an eye on related currency pairs such as USD/JPY and GBP/USD, as movements in these pairs may reflect broader market sentiment influenced by geopolitical developments and central bank policies.
What the calendar says
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The currency pair is now down 0.3% on the day to 1.1630 levels as we look to get into European trading later. While that doesn't seem like much, the significance is more so in the price action and the charts this week. The euro has been trading in a bit of a range against the dollar since mid-April.
That as it gets stuck between the 200-day moving average (blue line) as the floor and the 1.1800 mark as the ceiling. And as it looks like we're bracing ourselves for another week of the US-Iran conflict sticking around, markets are starting to turn around as the Trump-Xi meeting is very much a non-event - especially for the war. The drop in EUR/USD today now sees price fall to the lowest in five weeks.
And the drop is accelerating upon a break below the technical floor highlighted above. The 200-day moving average has helped to keep things in check in the past few weeks but that looks to be giving way since overnight trading and could lead to a bigger decline in the currency pair in the week to come. As things stand, all eyes are on the Middle East conflict as we turn our attention back to the US-Iran war after the Trump-Xi meeting.
The Beijing session helped to sidetrack markets but there was also perhaps some subtle expectation that Trump might announce something big with the help of Xi in progressing the situation in Iran. I can't be the only one with that slight inkling at the back of my head, no? From earlier this week: "I wouldn't be surprised if Trump used the visit to tee up an opportunity to announce something like "China has agreed to help resolve situation with Iran..
BIG NEWS coming!!!". It would be very on-brand of Trump to do so and try to gas up the stock market again, even if China didn't quite give any confirmation." But alas, it is not meant to be. China was quick to shut down any potential of that in saying that "there is no point in continuing the conflict" and that "the Strait of Hormuz must remain open for the good of everyone".
And that was about it. No firm commitments. No promises about helping to mediate the situation.
So, all of that is arguably putting markets in the spot we're seeing now ahead of the weekend. Going back to EUR/USD, we might be in for a test of the 1.1500 mark next if there is no positive headlines to come over the weekend from the Middle East. This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
Sources & References
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