Gold Price Forecast: Goldman Targets $5,400, Stays Bullish Into 2026 - Exchange Rates UK
Goldman Sachs raised its gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce and maintains a bullish outlook into 2026, citing sustained central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. This view underpins a structural bid for gold, which may spill over into FX through risk sentiment and real yield dynamics.
What the desk is arguing
Goldman Sachs has set a new gold price target of $5,400 per ounce, reinforcing a bullish stance into 2026. The desk argues that structural drivers—including central bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends, and persistent geopolitical risks—will continue to support gold prices. This view implies a sustained safe-haven bid that could weigh on risk-sensitive currencies like EUR/USD in times of stress.
The supporting evidence points to record central bank gold purchases over the past two years and a breakdown in the traditional negative correlation between gold and real yields. Goldman's model suggests that current gold prices do not fully price in the potential for further reserve diversification. The desk implicitly rejects the notion that a potential Federal Reserve pivot to tighter policy or a resolution of geopolitical conflicts would materially reverse gold's upward momentum.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal consensus target for gold is not directly applicable as gold is not a G10 currency pair. However, from an FX perspective, our consensus for EUR/USD is 1.075 by year-end, with a range of 1.04–1.12. Sustained gold strength could undermine the dollar if real rates fall, but our base case assumes modest USD support from relative growth outperformance.
Firms we track have divergent gold views: Barclays has a neutral target of $4,800 by Dec-26, JPMorgan sees gold at $5,000, and Goldman is most bullish at $5,400. This aligns with our view of elevated gold but not at the extremes. Barclays and JPMorgan are more cautious, arguing that the Fed may not cut as aggressively as priced.
How other firms see it
Goldman's stance is aligned with its own history as a longtime gold bull, but it stands out among peers. Barclays is more cautious, targeting $4,800 by Dec-26, citing potential headwinds from higher-for-longer real rates. JPMorgan sits in the middle with a $5,000 target, acknowledging structural support but seeing limited upside from current levels.
Among other firms, Morgan Stanley holds a neutral/contrary view, warning that gold’s rally is overdone and vulnerable to a correction if the dollar strengthens. UBS is similarly cautious, preferring to wait for a pullback to accumulate. These contrary views highlight the risk that gold’s bullish consensus may be crowded.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Goldman targets $5,400/oz for gold by end-2026, citing structural demand from central banks and de-dollarization.
- 02The bullish gold view supports safe-haven flows but could pressure risk-sensitive FX pairs if volatility spikes.
- 03Contrary views from Barclays and JPMorgan (targets $4,800–$5,000) suggest gold may be overextended near term.
Market implications
Elevated gold forecasts bolster the broader precious metals complex and commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD) via terms of trade. However, a sustained gold rally may reflect risk-off sentiment that historically weighs on EUR/USD. For FX desks, gold's trajectory is a key signal for USD direction: if gold holds above $5,000, it could imply a weaker USD bias on real rate compression.
Risks to this view
Upside: De-dollarization accelerates, central bank buying exceeds expectations, or geopolitical shock drives gold above $6,000. Downside: Fed hawkish surprise lifts real rates, a global growth rebound diminishes safe-haven demand, or a liquidity crunch forces gold liquidation (as in March 2020).
Sources & References
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