FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
With an October 30 move ruled out by every economist surveyed, the yen’s direction is likely to hinge on the tone of the BOJ’s statement and outlook report. A declaration that underlying inflation has reached 2% would mark a historic shift and strengthen expectations of a Decembe
| Firm |
|---|
| Stance |
|---|
| YE 2026 |
|---|
UBS | Bullish | 1.1600 |
ING | Bullish | 1.1300 |
Société Générale | Bearish | 1.1000 |
All 29 desk targets for EUR/USD
Desk synthesis pending
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French fiscal deterioration and political risk are now exerting visible pressure on EUR/USD technicals; watch for further ER/USD breaks if domestic political clarity fails to materialize.
French fiscal stress and widening OAT-Bund spreads create tail risk for EUR/USD support, with 1.1000 now in play if political uncertainty deepens before 2027.
Fed tightening expectations remain anchored while EUR/USD downside is capped only by short-covering; structural Dollar strength likely persists.
USD/JPY trades 2.46% above the 25-firm Dec-26 consensus of 153.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion reflecting deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path and US 10-year trajectory.
Cable trades at 1.3381, roughly 1.24% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects deep disagreement on BoE-vs-Fed sequencing.
EUR/USD spot sits 3.36% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB rate path.
29 investment banks see EUR/USD at 1.1523 by Dec 2026
View the live EUR/USD forecast