Podcast: Coronavirus – Plan B
The desk believes that while the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has been swift, significant uncertainty lingers regarding corporate resilience heading into 2021 and beyond. Per the full note from Nordea, corporates are urged to establish a 'Plan B' as the potential for optimistic consensus forecasts could falter. This perspective highlights a cautious approach amidst a backdrop where the anticipated vaccine rollout and therapy developments are not guaranteed immediate economic return. In essence, the focus is on maintaining flexibility to adapt to evolving market conditions.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the recent rebound in capital markets may disguise underlying vulnerabilities for corporates as they transition into 2021. As highlighted by Nordea's Thematics research, there is a growing inclination for firms to develop contingency strategies in anticipation of a potentially prolonged economic adjustment.
The commentary notes that while market sentiment has recovered, the sustainability of this rebound is questionable, urging firms to prepare for various scenarios. The likelihood of needing alternative strategies suggests that corporate planning must evolve beyond standard recovery models.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the EUR/USD stands at 1.075, with a range stretching from 1.04 to 1.12 as offered by various institutions. Notable targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 for Dec-26 - bofa: 1.04 for Dec-26
This stance aligns with jpmorgan, suggesting confidence in moderate recovery, whereas bofa represents a more cautious outlook, thus implying our target is towards the higher end of the spectrum.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi seem to align with this cautious optimism, factoring in gradual recovery while suggesting the need for robust containment strategies. Conversely, bofa, with a markedly lower target, reflects a less optimistic view on recovery speed and sustainability.
The implications of this debate can be easily seen in currency pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, where central bank policies of the Fed and ECB will play significant roles in shaping market reactions over the approaching months.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01The economic rebound post-COVID has led to heightened expectations for 2021, though uncertainty remains.
- 02Corporates are advised to prepare 'Plan B' strategies to navigate potential challenges ahead.
- 03Analysts urge flexibility in planning, acknowledging that the path to recovery may not follow anticipated norms.
- 04The need for increased corporate adaptability underscores a broader trend of cautious management amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD for signs of volatility linked to developments around vaccine efficacy and economic adjustments. A movement above 1.10 may signal a strengthening belief in recovery, while sustaining below 1.04 could reinforce bearish positions.
Risks to this view
A rapid resurgence of COVID-19 cases or a setback in vaccine rollout could force a reevaluation of economic forecasts, triggering a risk-off shift that may swiftly unwind current market positions.
Podcast Podcast: Coronavirus – Plan B 16-09-2020 Capital markets have rebounded from the COVID-19 shock, and consensus forecasts expect 2021 to be even better than the pre-pandemic 2019. Could the pandemic be resolved by a vaccine or therapy next year, or will we need to live with COVID-19 for longer, and accept that it continues to burden the economy? In the latest report from our Nordea Thematics research team, we are exploring how well corporates are equipped to face a more challenging 2021 and 2022 if consensus forecasts are too optimistic, and if there is a need for a contingency plan.
It could take time to get back to normal, and the new normal could be different from the old one. Corporates should have a plan B to ensure they can cope with the journey there, is the message from our experts. Listen to Johan Trocmé , director at Nordea Thematics, and Viktor Sonebäck , associate at Nordea Thematics, when they talk about this and more in the latest Nordea On Your Mind podcast.
We wanted to show you a Spotify but you cannot see it as you have not enabled cookies Click here to update your consent Nordea On Your Mind is the flagship publication of Nordea Investment Banking’s Thematics team, which produces research for large corporate and institutional clients. The research does not contain investment advice and typically covers topics of a strategic and long-term nature, which can affect corporate financial performance. Top decision makers at Nordea’s large clients across the Nordic region receive Nordea On Your Mind around eight times per year.
The publication’s themes vary widely, and many are selected from suggestions by clients. Examples of covered topics include artificial intelligence, wage inflation, M&A, e-commerce, income inequality, ESG, cybersecurity and corporate leverage. Get the report Top decision makers at Nordea’s large clients across the Nordic region receive Nordea On Your Mind around eight times per year.
If you are a corporate client and want to access the full Nordea On Your Mind report, please contact viktor.soneback [at] nordea.com (Viktor Sonebäck) Share on Facebook Share on Threads Share on Linkedin 24-11-2025 Sustainability Nordic companies stick to climate goals despite global uncertainty Amid geopolitical tensions and fractured global cooperation, Nordic companies are not retreating from their climate ambitions. Our Equities ESG Research team’s annual review shows stronger commitments and measurable progress on emissions reductions. Read more 20-11-2025 Sector insights RESourceEU in the age of geoeconomics: Nordic companies positioned to seize opportunities As Europe shifts towards strategic autonomy in critical resources, Nordic companies are uniquely positioned to lead.
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Podcast: Coronavirus – Plan B