EUR/USD: Support holds but upside limited – ING
The EUR/USD pair has found support at 1.1110, with technical indicators suggesting this level may hold temporarily. Despite some profit-taking on short positions, ING's outlook indicates limited potential for a significant upward move, reflecting persistent USD strength. Given the current spot at 1.1373 and broader sentiment of USD bullishness, this dynamic could curtail any meaningful retracement rally for the euro in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD currently sits at 1.1400 (median across 12 firms), with RBC at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower (1.1200). ING's positioning aligns with the cautious outlook, but several firms are projecting stronger targets, indicating potential divergence in market expectations.
How firms align
Firms such as Scotiabank and Rabobank are more optimistic regarding the euro, projecting targets of 1.1734 and 1.1759 for Mar26, respectively. Conversely, BofA maintains a more bearish stance with a target of 1.1700, suggesting skepticism toward sustaining upward momentum in EUR/USD. For more detail, refer to /research/rabobank and /research/bofa.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen minor adjustments, with UBS and Mizuho notably lowering their targets to 1.2000 and 1.1300 for Mar26. Moreover, our published research highlights that the EUR/USD is trading below consensus levels, indicating ongoing bearish pressure. See /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-11-11 for further analysis.
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD support at 1.1110 may only provide temporary respite.
- 02Bullish USD sentiment prevails; expect limited euro upside.
- 03Watch for any shifts around 1.1373 as profit-taking unfolds.
Market implications
Next, market participants should watch how EUR/USD reacts to any further developments near the current support level. Key economic indicators or calendar events could drive momentum, potentially testing the consensus target of 1.1400.
Risks to this view
This outlook could face significant headwinds if the ECB signals a more hawkish stance, leading to a swift reversal in sentiment. Additionally, unexpected shifts in U.S. economic data could bolster the euro's positioning.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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