The Commodities Feed: Brent drops below $100
Lead — The market's rejection of elevated oil prices is becoming clear as Brent crude has retreated below the $100/bbl mark for the first time since early August. The sell-off is primarily driven by expectations of increased Saudi crude exports, renewed US-Iran diplomatic efforts, and a surprising rise in US crude inventories, which has eased concerns over supply disruptions. Per the full note from ing-think, these factors have contributed to a cumulative 9.5% decline in Brent over six consecutive sessions. Oil prices are still significantly higher year-to-date, but this correction signals a crucial shift in market sentiment. Upcoming data on crude inventories will further shape expectations in the energy sector.
What the desk is arguing
The ongoing drop in oil prices reflects a shift in market dynamics, driven by a combination of increased Saudi exports and a more stable geopolitical outlook. Per the full note from ing-think, the recent developments have eased fears surrounding Middle Eastern supply disruptions, allowing prices to retreat.
In concrete terms, Brent has seen a 9.5% decline over the longest streak since August 2025, while WTI is tracking around $89/bbl. Meanwhile, the U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, contrary to market expectations for a draw, which adds more bearish sentiment to the oil market.
Where it sits in our coverage
While our coverage does not feature a consensus target specific to the output from ing-think, it is important to contextualize the market's response. Other firms, such as jpmorgan with a target of 1.10 for March 26, and bofa with a lower target of 1.04, provide a gauge of the prevailing sentiment surrounding related factors in the FX space. The desk may be leaning toward the lower expected range given the pressure from the commodity market shifts.
How other firms see it
Analysts are divided; while firms like jpmorgan remain aligned with a relatively bullish position, firms like bofa take a more cautious stance suggesting lower valuations. This divergence indicates that sentiment is fluctuating significantly in response to global crude oil prices.
Monitoring the USD/JPY pairing may yield useful insights, especially as fluctuations in oil prices influence global interest and risk sentiment due to imports and inflationary pressures tied to energy costs.
What the calendar says
With no scheduled high-impact events in the immediate future, traders should keep a keen eye on the next EIA inventory report, which could confirm the trends outlined in recent API data and further influence sentiment.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Brent crude prices have dipped below $100/bbl amid easing supply concerns.
- 02Saudi exports are anticipated to rise, contributing to shifting market dynamics.
- 03The recent API data showed a significant increase in US crude inventories.
- 04Oil remains over 60% higher year-to-date, although the correction indicates a change in sentiment.
Market implications
Traders should watch for confirmation in the upcoming EIA inventory report, especially after the recent API data indicating a larger-than-expected build in US crude stocks. A break below key support for Brent near $98 could encourage further downside movement.
Risks to this view
Any unexpected geopolitical tensions could reverse the current bearish sentiment in oil markets. Additionally, more substantial-than-expected draws in future inventory reports could reinvigorate bullish momentum.
Articles The Commodities Feed: Brent drops below $100 Published 08:00 Commodities daily Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Oil prices continue to retreat as expectations of increased Saudi crude exports, progress in US-Iran talks, and a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories help ease supply concerns Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson Energy – Saudi pipeline restart weighs on oil prices Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with Brent dropping below $99/bbl and WTI trading near $89/bbl. The sell-off was driven by expectations of rising Saudi crude exports, diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, and a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories, all of which helped ease concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Brent has now declined for six consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak since August 2025, bringing cumulative losses to more than 9.5%.
Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its East-West pipeline and could soon resume exports from the Yanbu terminal. The route, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, has a capacity of around 7m b/d and is expected to gradually restore lost export flows, potentially increasing global crude supplies in the coming weeks. On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump described recent discussions with Iranian officials as "very productive", raising hopes for further diplomatic progress and reducing fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the region.
Despite the recent correction, oil prices remain more than 60% higher year-to-date. Additional pressure came from the latest API data, which showed US crude inventories rose by 1.7m barrels last week, compared with expectations of a 578k-barrel draw. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks each fell by 2.2m barrels.
The market will now look to the EIA inventory report later today for confirmation. US natural gas prices extended gains for a second session, with Henry Hub futures trading above $3/MMBtu. Prices were supported by lower production in the Lower 48 and forecasts for cooler temperatures across the Northeast, which could boost heating demand.
However, potential storm-related power outages may limit the increase in gas consumption. Metals – Strong demand drives Chinese gold imports Chinese gold imports rose 39.3% year-on-year to 141.7 tonnes in August, taking year-to-date imports to a record 1,141.2 tonnes, up 72.2%. Lower gold prices, a stronger yuan and persistent domestic price premiums encouraged inflows, while banks also drew on remaining import quotas under the licensing regime introduced by the People's Bank of China in June.
Chinese gold ETFs added around 44 tonnes through August, an 18% increase from the start of the year, according to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, while global ETF holdings were broadly unchanged. LME copper extended gains for a sixth consecutive session on Tuesday, its longest winning streak since May, before retreating slightly Wednesday morning, as tight physical market conditions in China continued to support prices. Falling inventories, holiday-related restocking and seasonal demand ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays boosted consumption.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Related news on this pair
EUR/USD: Support holds but upside limited – ING
EUR/USD support at 1.1110 likely temporary; weak bounce momentum suggests USD strength remains favored on any retracement.
Euro: Hawkish ECB cushions losses against US Dollar - ING
ECB hawkish positioning provides near-term floor for EUR/USD around 1.1200 despite dollar strength from potential US political outcomes.