Dutch hospitality 2026: Consumer caution keeps volume growth flat
Lead — The desk interprets that the Dutch hospitality sector will experience continued stagnation, with minimal volume growth projected through 2026, driven by rising prices and consumer caution. Per the full note from ING, this reflects a broader trend of changing consumer behavior in an environment of geopolitical uncertainty and increasing living costs. Despite a temporary boost in consumer spending observed in Q2 of 2026, overall volume remains weak, with a 1.6% drop in sales volumes recorded in the first half of the year. This outlook aligns with ongoing themes in eurozone economic resilience, suggesting that sector-specific dynamics could lead to broader EUR volatility.
What the desk is arguing
The desk asserts that the Dutch hospitality industry will face a prolonged period of subdued growth through 2026, with volume increases likely to remain flat. According to ING Research, consumers are tightening their spending habits, conscious of higher prices and continuing geopolitical risks, meaning substantial recovery is unlikely.
Notably, volume growth is projected to be only 0.5% in 2027, indicating a persistent stagnation. The pressure on restaurants and cafés is evidenced by a 1.6% decline in sales volumes in the first half of 2026, despite a turnover increase driven solely by price hikes rather than improved demand, as pointed out in the ING report.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the EUR/USD pair is 1.075, with a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Specific firms have varying projections for Dec-26: - jpmorgan targets 1.10 - bofa anticipates a lower target of 1.04.
This cautious outlook from the desk is consistent with the consensus, sitting at the upper end of the ongoing spread, and suggests potential support around 1.07 if current trends persist.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms such as jpmorgan appear to support a cautious view on the EUR, reflecting a collective skepticism about economic conditions favoring robust growth. On the contrary, bofa presents a more bearish stance given their lower target, indicating differing expectations for the EUR based on overall economic performance.
The dynamics in the Dutch hospitality sector could influence other related currency pairs, highlighting risks along the EUR/USD trajectory, especially as consumer sentiment continues to falter amid ongoing inflation pressures and geopolitical concerns.
What the calendar says
There are no significant economic events scheduled in the upcoming weeks that may impact the Dutch hospitality sector or related currency pairs, thus the market will likely continue to react to existing economic indicators and consumer spending data already in play.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Dutch hospitality volume growth is expected to stagnate through 2026.
- 02Price increases are responsible for revenue growth rather than increased consumer demand.
- 03Economic uncertainty and changing consumer behavior are key factors affecting spending.
- 04A meaningful recovery in the sector is projected to be distant, with only a 0.5% volume growth in 2027.
Market implications
Watch for the EUR/USD pair's movements around the 1.075 mark as the market digests consumer sentiment reports and broader economic data. Any substantial shifts in this dynamic could prompt positioning adjustments in anticipation of further slowdowns in European consumer spending.
Risks to this view
A faster-than-expected economic recovery or positive shifts in consumer confidence could invalidate the current call. Additionally, any rapid easing of geopolitical tensions might stimulate demand, countering the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Articles Dutch hospitality 2026: Consumer caution keeps volume growth flat Published 13:53 The Netherlands Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Growth in the Dutch hospitality industry is expected to remain weak in 2026 as consumers continue to cut back on their spending. With demand largely stagnant and price increases accounting for most revenue growth, the sector is set to enter its third consecutive year of weak expansion. Hospitality prices are projected to increase by around 5% this year Katinka Jongkind Despite stronger consumer spending in the second quarter, restaurants and cafés have yet to benefit from this trend Stagnating volume growth in 2026 In 2026, we expect little to no volume growth in the Dutch hospitality industry.
Due to rising prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty, consumers are tightening their purse strings this year, just like in 2025. A meaningful recovery remains distant; even in 2027, volume growth is projected to reach only around 0.5%. This suggests that the sector is entering a prolonged period of subdued demand.
Stagnating growth for the Dutch hospitality industry expected in 2026 Volume growth in the Dutch hospitality industry, year-on-year Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 and 2027 ING Research "> Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 and 2027 ING Research Volume contraction for restaurants and cafés in first half of 2026 Despite stronger consumer spending in the second quarter, restaurants and cafés have yet to benefit from this trend. ING payment data indicates that sales volumes in the sector fell by 1.6% in the first half of 2026 compared with a year earlier. While turnover increased by almost 3%, this growth was fully attributable to higher prices rather than greater demand.
The decline in volumes reflects changing consumer behaviour, with households becoming more selective in their spending. Higher fuel costs and broader economic uncertainty are prompting consumers to reduce discretionary expenses, such as dining out and holidays. Fewer overnight stays in hotels and holiday parks The accommodation sector shows a similar trend, with overnight stays declining by 1.5% in the first half of 2026 compared with a year earlier.
Holiday parks recorded the sharpest decline at 2.5%, while overnight hotel stays fell by almost 2%. One factor may be the increase in the VAT rate on accommodation from 9% to 21% in January 2026, which has made hotel rooms and holiday homes around 11% more expensive than in 2025. As campsites are exempt from the higher VAT rate, they have strengthened their price competitiveness relative to other accommodation options.
Fewer overnight stays in hotels and holiday parks in the first half of 2026 Development in the number of overnight stays in the Netherlands by accommodation, January - June (2026 vs 2025) Source: CBS, ING Research "> Source: CBS, ING Research On average, 5% higher prices in 2026 Due to the VAT increase and the resurgence of inflation, hospitality prices are expected to rise by around 5% on average in 2026, following an increase of 4% in 2025. These higher prices reflect continued pressure from rising labour, rental and procurement costs. By the end of 2025, prices in the hospitality industry were on average a quarter higher than in 2022.
However, the scope for further price increases appears to be diminishing. A recent ING survey found that two-thirds of Dutch respondents consider current prices in cafés and restaurants to be excessively high. This suggests that many hospitality businesses may be approaching the limit of what customers are willing to pay, making it increasingly difficult to offset rising costs through higher prices alone.
Hospitality prices expected to rise by 5% in 2026 Consumer price index (cpi) for restaurants and hotels in the Netherlands Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 ING Research "> Source: CBS, *forecasts 2026 ING Research Focus on cost control and clear positioning As a result of rising costs and persistent labour shortages, improving labour productivity is becoming increasingly important for many restaurants and cafés seeking to maintain profitability. Productivity gains can be achieved by further standardising and streamlining operations. Measures include introducing fixed menus, reducing menu complexity, improving inventory management, increasing table occupancy through multiple seating rounds per day, and implementing more efficient workflows in both the kitchen and restaurant service.
On the cost side, companies are focusing on more strategic purchasing and selectively switching to lower-cost alternatives to keep procurement expenses under control. As margin pressure continues to mount, the combination of productivity improvements and tighter cost management is becoming increasingly critical to preserving profitability and long-term earning capacity across the sector. Restaurants and cafés focus on further streamlining operations to boost productivity Measures restaurants and cafes take to improve productivity, percentage of businesses, April 2026 Source: CBS, ING Research "> Source: CBS, ING Research The Dutch hospitality industry faces a mixed cocktail of trends The hospitality sector is navigating a challenging period marked by modest growth, margin pressure and structural change.
Restaurants and cafés, in particular, operate in an increasingly competitive market where profitability is under constant pressure, making distinctiveness and strategic focus more important than ever. An increasingly clear divide is emerging within the sector. On one side are predominantly larger hospitality businesses that successfully adapt to changing consumer preferences and market conditions through innovative concepts and economies of scale.
On the other are many smaller companies that struggle to make this transition, often due to limited financial resources, outdated business models or the age and risk appetite of the entrepreneur. This widening gap is contributing to ongoing dynamism in the sector. More traditional hospitality businesses are expected to either close or be acquired.
As competitive pressure intensifies, strategic investments in innovation, sustainability, cost management, and customer loyalty are becoming essential to ensure long-term viability and resilience. The nether Consumer spending Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Author Katinka Jongkind Senior Economist, Retail, Services and Leisure Katinka Jongkind is a sector economist covering Retail, Services and Leisure. She joined ING in 2012 after a career in financial journalism. Katinka studied Economics at the University of Amsterdam.
In this article Stagnating volume growth in 2026 Volume contraction for restaurants and cafés in first half of 2026 Fewer overnight stays in hotels and holiday parks On average, 5% higher prices in 2026 Focus on cost control and clear positioning The Dutch hospitality industry faces a mixed cocktail of trends
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