US Dollar Credit Supply: Strongest corporate supply seen in August
The desk views the surge in US corporate credit issuance as a sign of resilient financial health and potential dollar strength moving forward. Per the full note from ing-think, August marked a record US$116 billion in corporate issuance, surpassing previous highs and indicating a strong appetite for long-term financing amidst prevailing uncertainty. Year-to-date figures show a total of US$878 billion, significantly outpacing totals from past years and highlighting a clear divergence in sectors, particularly with TMT leading the charge. While bank issuance has slowed slightly, the overall trend suggests corporates are favoring extended maturities, which may enhance dollar liquidity and influence FX dynamics in the coming months.
What the desk is arguing
The desk believes that robust corporate credit supply will bolster demand for the US dollar. The record August issuance of US$116 billion indicates a strong corporate appetite for financing, reinforcing a positive sentiment in USD liquidity conditions, as highlighted by ing-think.
Strong figures from the Technology, Media, and Telecommunications (TMT) sector, which alone accounted for US$43 billion, further underscore the bullish momentum. Year-to-date figures reveal that corporate issuances have already reached US$878 billion, which is well above previous yearly totals from 2021 to 2024.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the USD/EUR pair is set at 1.075, with an established range between 1.04 and 1.12. The following firms have provided targets:
This perspective aligns firmly with jpmorgan, predicting a slightly stronger US dollar over the coming months, marking the desk's outlook as largely in line with the upper end of the current consensus range.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms like jpmorgan and other related entities endorse a bullish outlook on USD, while firms such as bofa present a more cautious stance. The differing views reveal the ongoing tension between anticipated Fed policy shifts and emerging global economic indicators.
Relevant currency pairs to watch include USD/JPY and EUR/USD, particularly as they interact with ongoing expectations for central bank policy adjustments.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01August 2023 recorded US$116 billion in corporate credit issuance, the highest on record.
- 02Year-to-date USD corporate issuance reached US$878 billion, significantly outpacing totals from the previous years.
- 03The TMT sector remains the strongest contributor to credit issuance, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market.
- 04Banks' issuance has slowed but remains robust compared to historical levels.
Market implications
Watch for USD strength, particularly against the EUR and JPY, as increased corporate issuance may lead to enhanced liquidity. The upcoming Fed meeting could also shift the dynamics if interest rates are adjusted, influencing USD valuation.
Risks to this view
A significant reversal in credit supply or a drastic slowdown in economic activity could dampen demand for the US dollar. Any unexpected shift in Federal Reserve policy or macroeconomic indicators could also compel a reassessment of the dollar's trajectory.
Reports Report US Dollar Credit Supply: Strongest corporate supply seen in August Published 13:00 Credit August issuance reached a record US$116bn, surpassing the previous high set in 2020 Timothy Rahill and Marine Leleux Download PDF Strongest corporates issuances on record in August August issuance was the strongest on record (US$116bn), surpassing the previous record in 2020, up from US$84bn in July and well above the US$77bn printed in August 2025. Activity was dominated by TMT (US$43bn), followed by Industrials & Chemicals (US$19bn), Healthcare (US$16bn) and Utilities (US$14bn). Year-to-date USD corporate issuance reached US$878bn, already exceeding full-year corporate issuance recorded in every year from 2021 through to 2024 and running 54% above the same period last year (US$571bn).
The increase continues to be driven by TMT (US$330bn, up 210% YoY), with the Consumer sector (US$45bn, down 51% YoY) notably lagging behind 2025 levels. Issuers continue to favour the long end of the curve. Year-to-date issuance in maturities of 17 years and longer totals US$235bn, making it the largest maturity bucket, ahead of 9-12 year tenors (US$219bn).
August also saw healthy long-dated issuance, with US$26.6bn printed in the 17yr+ bucket and US$25.6bn in the 9-12 year segment, suggesting corporates remain willing to term out funding. Financial supply slowed down in August Financials’ activity slowed down in August with just over US$58bn printed. The most significant slowdown stemmed from banks’ supply with US$39bn issued last month, a US$16bn drop MoM.
However, it is still well ahead of the US$17bn we recorded in August 2025. Regardless of last month’s lower activity, banks’ YTD USD supply reached US$511bn, a staggering US$100bn ahead of the 2025 YTD total. Despite banks’ activity focusing on the senior unsecured segment over August, we also note an increase in covered bond issuances with US$3.3bn supplied.
This brings the YTD USD-denominated covered bond supply to US$15.5bn, the highest level recorded since 2022 (with over US$22bn). Last month’s bank supply was concentrated in the 3-5yr maturity bucket, with nearly US$20bn issued. This reflects issuers’ preferences since the start of the year as, on a YTD basis, nearly 40% of all banks’ USD issuances fall in this bucket.
A further 24% lies in the belly of the curve, while 35% have maturity of nine years or longer. USD Credit Supply Update Dollar Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument.
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