US Dollar Credit Supply: Substantial USD supply in 2026
The desk posits that a significant increase in USD credit supply in 2026 could materially impact USD liquidity and positioning. Per the full note from ing-think, corporate issuance reached $112 billion in September, contributing to a year-to-date total that has already surpassed 2025's end-of-year figures. As corporate debt issuance remains robust, with notable activity from the technology and media telecommunications (TMT) sector, the implications for USD demand could shift notably in the coming months.
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the substantial influx of USD credit supply in 2026 is likely to reshape the USD liquidity landscape significantly. Per the full note from ing-think, September saw a corporate issuance of $112 billion, raising the year-to-date total above $1 trillion, which already eclipses the total of $925 billion for 2025.
This robust issuance is underpinned by strong net supply levels, with a corporate net supply of $69 billion in September alone. This dynamic highlights a marked increase in borrowing, particularly among corporates in the TMT sector, which has issued $381 billion year-to-date—more than double the volume seen in the same period last year.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our target for the USD against a basket of currencies, particularly the EUR/USD, remains at 1.075, aligned within a range from 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan's more optimistic take on USD strength, while it diverges from bofa's cautious outlook, indicating a potential volatility in USD positioning as 2026 approaches.
How other firms see it
Firms aligned with an optimistic USD outlook include jpmorgan and citi, while bofa represents a more bearish stance. The contrasting views suggest a split market sentiment regarding the sustainability of USD strength amidst rising credit supply.
Key currency pairs to watch alongside this USD narrative include EUR/USD and USD/JPY, reflecting broader trends influenced by corporate borrowing and credit conditions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01USD credit supply is on track for a substantial increase in 2026, challenging previous issuance levels.
- 02Corporate issuance in September totaled $112 billion, raising the year-to-date total above $1 trillion.
- 03The TMT sector has been pivotal in this surge, contributing $381 billion in YTD issuance.
- 04Net corporate supply has been markedly higher than last year, indicating a shift in USD demand.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the USD liquidity impact as credit issuance heats up, particularly from the TMT sector. A supportive level for the USD against the EUR to watch is 1.075, with any traders’ positioning reflecting perceptions around upcoming credit volumes.
Risks to this view
A sudden shift in investor confidence, possibly due to economic data or central bank adjustments, could invalidate this bullish USD outlook. Additionally, any significant changes in corporate earnings expectations could lead to lower demand for dollar-denominated debt, reversing the current trends.
Reports Report US Dollar Credit Supply: Substantial USD supply in 2026 Published 15:16 Credit September was another strong month in terms of supply for corporates and financials Timothy Rahill and Marine Leleux Download PDF Executive summary Corporate supply keeps flowing in September corporate issuance totalled US$112bn, broadly in line with August’s US$118bn. This lifted YTD issuance above US$1tn, surpassing the 2025 full year total of US$925bn and just trailing the US$1038bn YTD figure from 2020, which ended the year at US$1166bn. TMT remained the largest contributor to USD corporate supply in September with US$44bn issued during the month.
YTD issuance reached US$381bn, more than double the volume recorded over the same period in 2025 and representing the largest sector contribution to the corporate market. Corporate net supply remained elevated in September at US$69bn, bringing the YTD total to US$573bn. Strong issuance volumes alongside comparatively modest redemption activity have left net supply running well ahead of the level recorded over the same period in 2025 .
Reverse Yankee issuance amounted to €16bn in September, lifting YTD volume to €122bn. Issuance activity has therefore already exceeded the full-year totals recorded in most previous years and remains well above the level seen over the same period in 2025. Financial supply also picked up significantly in September Financials’ bank bond supply picked up in September to reach levels comparable to April at US$99bn.
The bulk of that increase stems from bank issuance which totalled US$70bn, nearly double August’s level. This brings banks’ 2026 YTD supply to US$580bn while other financial issuers have printed US$112bn and insurers another US$68bn since the start of the year. Looking more in depth at banks’ issuances, we note that nearly US$42bn were printed in senior bail-in instruments, a US$17bn month-on-month increase and the highest issuance level recorded since April.
Senior preferred bond supply nearly doubled compared to August with over US$13bn supplied. We also note an increase in subordinated and covered bond issuances but to a lesser extent than senior unsecured instruments, with a US$5bn and US$2bn increase respectively. USD denominated covered bond issuances reached US$21bn in 2026 YTD, which is already an US$11bn increase compared to 2025.
This is partly reflecting the significant activity on the EUR primary market in both August and September, with issuers turning to currency diversification to bring new instruments to the market. We expect issuances across the liability structure to remain strong this month and the FY total to land well above last year’s. US Dollar Credit Supply Update Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
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