US import ban on new inverters adds fresh pressure to clean power supply chain
The recent US import ban on foreign inverters is poised to intensify the challenges faced by the clean power supply chain, particularly in solar and battery sectors. Per the full note from ING, this decision introduces medium-term uncertainty and could increase costs, complicating the already strained supply chains due to prevailing tariffs and national security regulations. As sustained demand for inverters correlates with the expansion of the data centre industry, the implications could ripple beyond just power generation. Without radical shifts in policy or supply dynamics, the outlook for US renewable energy remains stable despite these challenges.
What the desk is arguing
The desk views the US ban on new inverter imports as a significant yet manageable setback for the renewable energy sector. This new development is expected to escalate costs and add complexity to supply chain strategies, yet it does not fundamentally change the long-term outlook for US renewables, as noted by ING.
With the FCC citing national security concerns in their decision, the rationale behind targeting inverters stems from rising fears over cybersecurity vulnerabilities associated with state-of-the-art monitoring features present in many modern systems. As both solar and battery tech expand in response to increasing electricity demands, this ban could impact project timelines and the financial viability of new installations.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for the EUR/USD stands at 1.075, within a range of 1.04 to 1.12, as informed by several key institutions: - JPMorgan: Target 1.10, tenor Mar 26 - BofA: Target 1.04, tenor Mar 26
This perspective aligns with the prevailing view among market participants, though remains at the lower bound of the forecast spread due to underlying volatility in the energy sector affecting exchange rates.
How other firms see it
Several firms, including JPMorgan and UBS, carry similar sentiments regarding the resilience of the renewable sector despite legislative setbacks, positioning them in agreement with our outlook. Conversely, BofA and Goldman Sachs express concerns that heightened import restrictions might lead to more drastic revisions in future financial forecasts.
Related to this, traders should monitor the EUR/USD pair, keeping an eye on how fluctuations in renewable energy legislation might intersect with monetary policy adjustments or currency stability in the coming quarters.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01US import ban on inverters adds pressure to clean power supply chains
- 02Existing inverters remain unaffected; focus is on new imports
- 03Cost increases and project delays likely, but renewables outlook remains stable
- 04Cybersecurity concerns are a key driver of this legislation
Market implications
Traders should watch the EUR/USD pair closely as geopolitical and economic implications of the inverter ban unfold. Increased costs and supply chain disruptions could pressure currency valuations linked to the energy sector, particularly in European markets.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this outlook hinges on potential modifications to the import ban or expedited approvals for new inverter imports. Significant improvements in supply chain efficiencies or technological advancements in domestic production could also mitigate these impacts considerably.
Articles US import ban on new inverters adds fresh pressure to clean power supply chain Published 17:49 Energy Sustainability Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The new import ban adds medium-term uncertainty to clean power supply chains. Existing approved inverters are unaffected, but new foreign imports will be blocked. The measure could raise costs and further complicate supply chain strategies, but without materially altering the US renewables outlook Coco Zhang The recent import ban on new inverter products could shake up solar and battery supply chains, along with the data centre industry The US clean power supply chain, already under strain, is facing another headwind.
As solar and battery project developers grapple with tariffs and foreign entity of concern (FEOC) requirements to maintain tax-credit eligibility, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) announced on 28 July an immediate import ban on new inverter products, citing “unacceptable risks” to national security. The move would further shake up solar and battery supply chains, with ripple effects for the rapidly expanding data centre industry. What inverters are and where the security concerns come from Inverters are electronic devices that convert direct current (DC) into alternating current (AC).
They are a critical component of clean power projects: solar panels and batteries operate on DC, while the power grid runs on AC, making inverters necessary for compatibility. Demand for inverters is also rising alongside data centre growth , as battery systems are increasingly used to provide fast-response power and support on-site backup generators. Concerns around inverters are increasingly focused on cybersecurity .
Many modern inverters have remote monitoring and control capabilities, creating potential vulnerabilities. If compromised, they could be manipulated or shut down remotely, disrupting power assets and, in extreme cases, affecting grid stability. Short-term calm, medium-term uncertainty The ban applies to all countries , making it a broad measure that affects all foreign-made inverter products.
In practice, China is likely to be hit hardest, as it accounts for roughly 80% of global inverter manufacturing capacity, compared with just 8% in Europe and 3% in North America. Global power inverter manufacturing capacity by geography Source: International Energy Agency, ING Research "> Source: International Energy Agency, ING Research However, there is an important exception – inverter models that have already received FCC approval are exempt. In the US, inverters and other devices that emit radio frequencies require an FCC ID before they can be legally imported.
The new rule prevents the FCC from issuing approvals for new foreign-made inverter models, but developers can continue importing models that have already been certified. This is a key provision that will contribute to market stability in the near term. But over time, developers may still need to reconfigure their supply chains.
First, the new FCC rule places tight limits on post-authorisation software and firmware updates. As a result, upgrades to inverters already in service could require additional regulatory approval. Second, the industry will inevitably shift to newer and more efficient inverter models.
Under the current ban, new foreign-made models could not enter the US market. This risks further tightening a supply chain that remains heavily dependent on imports, with domestic manufacturing unlikely to meet demand in the foreseeable future. Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates that US-produced inverters supplied only 18% of US solar installations last year.
Who benefits, who pays, and what to watch US domestic producers stand to benefit from the ban. Demand for US-made inverters, including products from GE Vernova and EPC Power, is likely to surge. For developers, however, tighter supply could further lift costs for solar and battery projects, which are already on the rise.
Lazard estimates that the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale solar increased 19% year-on-year (YoY). The levelised cost of storage for utility-scale standalone 100MW, 4-hour batteries increased by 36% YoY, reversing last year’s decline, amid a more complex supply chain environment. Developers that rely heavily on imported inverters may also need to rethink procurement strategies and build supply chains that are better positioned to withstand future policy shifts.
A key watch point is how quickly new non-Chinese inverter models can reach the US market. The Trump administration appears to be taking an "exclude first, exempt later" approach, meaning suppliers from Europe and other regions may gradually gain pathways to serve the US market. Chinese manufacturers, however, could face greater challenges given the limited clarity around the conditional exemption process.
Even so, the supply challenge is unlikely to be resolved structurally while China accounts for around 80% of global inverter manufacturing capacity. Demand for inverters from North America is 11% of the global total – without Chinese supply, the competition for compliant inverter supply would only get fiercer. More government scrutiny could intensify competition for supply Looking ahead, the clean power industry should expect greater scrutiny of inverters as governments place more emphasis on cybersecurity.
The EU has already moved in this direction, restricting projects that use "high-risk" inverters from accessing funding from major public finance institutions, including the European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Investment Fund (EIF), and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The EU is also mulling over extending such restrictions to projects supported by EU member states' national budgets. This would further intensify the competition globally for non-Chinese inverters and push supply chain costs higher.
A rockier way ahead, but there’s no turning back While the near-term impact of the ban is likely to be limited, it could increase costs and supply chain pressures for the US clean power industry over the medium term. Competition for compliant inverters may also intensify as Europe steps up inverter regulation. Combined with ongoing tariff and FEOC uncertainty, this could modestly slow project development.
That said, we do not expect the ban to materially alter the outlook for US renewables. The industry remains supported by an estimated 216-240 GW of solar capacity safe-harboured between mid-2024 and the 4 July 2026 tax credit deadline. Strong growth in electricity demand, particularly from AI-driven data centres, should also continue to supercharge solar and battery storage deployment.
Solar power Data centres Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Author Coco Zhang ESG Research Coco is based in New York, where she covers environmental, social and governance (ESG) topics, typically with a US flavour.
Prior to joining ING, she worked at Eurasia Group. Coco holds a dual… In this article What inverters are and where the security concerns come from Short-term calm, medium-term uncertainty Who benefits, who pays, and what to watch More government scrutiny could intensify competition for supply A rockier way ahead, but there’s no turning back
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