Webinar: Directional Economics CEE – who breaks, who bends on Energy Shock 2.0
The desk anticipates that Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will face significant challenges due to the projected 2026 oil shock, as highlighted in the recent ING webinar announcement. Per the full note source, the discussion will delve into the implications of political shifts in Hungary and Poland, and the potential policy missteps by CEE central banks in response to inflationary pressures. This scenario suggests a heightened risk for regional currencies, particularly if inflation continues to outpace expectations. With no immediate high-impact events on the calendar, traders should prepare for volatility as the region navigates these economic headwinds.
What the desk is arguing
ING's CEE economists are warning that the 2026 oil shock could severely test the region's resilience, with potential policy mistakes by central banks if they overreact to inflation. The webinar also highlights political transitions in Hungary and Poland as key variables for economic stability.
The desk implicitly rejects the idea that the 2026 oil shock will be manageable for all CEE economies, arguing that some will 'break' while others merely 'bend'. The focus on central bank policy mistakes suggests skepticism that current inflation-fighting strategies are appropriate.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our internal coverage does not include specific targets for CEE currencies, as the commentary is broad. However, the energy shock theme aligns with our general view that commodity-linked currencies face headwinds. We have no firm spread or consensus target for this region.
No specific firm targets are available for CEE currencies in our database. The commentary is pre-webinar and lacks the granularity needed to cite individual bank forecasts.
How other firms see it
As this is an ING-hosted webinar, we expect their views to be broadly aligned with the consensus among CEE-focused economists. However, without specific firm stances in the source, we cannot cite contrary or aligned views from other banks.
We look forward to the webinar on 21 May for more detailed analysis and will update coverage accordingly.
Key takeaways
- 01ING's CEE webinar on 21 May will address the 2026 oil shock and its differentiated impact on the region.
- 02Political changes in Hungary and Poland are key variables for economic policy and currency stability.
- 03Central banks may face a policy mistake if they react too aggressively to inflation amid the energy shock.
Market implications
CEE currencies could face volatility as markets price in the risk of a severe energy shock. If central banks tighten prematurely, growth may suffer, weakening currencies. Conversely, a measured response could support stability. The webinar may crystallize these risks.
Risks to this view
Downside risks: oil shock sharper than expected, political instability in Hungary, synchronized policy mistakes by CEE central banks. Upside: energy diversification success, prudent policy response, and political continuity in Poland.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: Join ING’s CEE economists for a live webinar on 21 May, looking at how the region copes with the 2026 oil shock. We’ll also be analysing the change of government in Hungary and what can be learned from Poland’s political experience, plus whether CEE central banks are about to make a policy mistake in reacting to inflation. Sign up here
Sources & References
How we cover this story