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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, consensus as of August 13, 2026 skews toward modest USD softening by December, but the aggregate picture masks sharp divergence: USD/INR sits nearly 10% above its median target while USD/ZAR is essentially flat to consensus, and per-pair dispersion ranges from a tight 1.2 points on USD/BRL to a wide 12.8 points on USD/TRY.
Key Numbers
- USD/MXN spot: 17.0535 — median Dec-26 target 17.90, spot 4.73% below consensus (USD underpriced vs median)
- USD/BRL spot: 5.1612 — median Dec-26 target 5.10, spot 1.20% above consensus
- USD/ZAR spot: 16.1336 — median Dec-26 target 16.175, spot 0.26% below consensus (near-flat)
- USD/TRY spot: 47.7745 — median Dec-26 target 50.25, spot 4.93% below consensus; widest range at 43.5–56.3
- USD/INR spot: 95.43 — median Dec-26 target 87.0, spot 9.69% above consensus; most extreme gap in the basket
- USD/KRW spot: 1420.99 — median Dec-26 target 1380.0, spot 2.97% above consensus
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Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Morgan Stanley · Rabobank · Commerzbank · JPMorgan +18 more
22 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-13 11:04 UTC
The table below covers every desk in the firm forecasts list, sorted by target within each pair grouping. Stances are expressed as views on EM FX itself: bullish = expects EM currency to rise, bearish = expects EM currency to fall.
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Commerzbank | 96.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
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Where Is Consensus Most Crowded — and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/ZAR is the tightest call in the basket. With spot at 16.1336 and the median Dec-26 target at 16.175, the gap is a negligible 0.26%. That near-consensus reading does not, however, reflect agreement on direction: Deutsche Bank targets 15.5 (bearish on USD) while Citi targets 18.0 (bullish on USD), a 2.5-point spread across 18 firms. The median is close to spot almost by arithmetic coincidence — the bull and bear camps offset each other.
USD/TRY carries the widest absolute dispersion in the basket: 12.8 points between UBS at 43.5 and ING at 56.3. That range reflects genuine disagreement about the pace of CBRT normalisation and whether the lira's real-rate carry story survives into year-end. Spot at 47.7745 sits 4.93% below the 50.25 median, meaning the consensus still expects further TRY depreciation from here — but the UBS anchor at 43.5 implies meaningful lira appreciation, a minority view.
USD/MXN shows the second-largest dispersion in percentage terms: Standard Chartered at 17.0 versus Nomura at 19.2, a 2.2-point gap across 19 firms. Spot at 17.0535 is already at the StanChart floor, which implies either StanChart revises higher or the rest of the consensus has to compress toward spot over the coming months.
Which Pairs Are Desks Pushing on Carry Grounds?
USD/TRY and USD/INR are the two pairs where carry arguments dominate the narrative framing, even if the consensus directions differ sharply.
On USD/INR, the 9.69% gap between spot (95.43) and the Dec-26 median (87.0) is the most extreme in the basket — spot is trading well above where the 19-firm consensus expects it to end the year. Both desks with published targets, UBS at 83.5 and Commerzbank at 96.0, are bearish on USD/INR (i.e., expect rupee appreciation or at minimum USD softening), yet the range between them is 12.5 points. The consensus call for a lower USD/INR by December is the boldest directional bet in the EM basket given how far spot has run above median.
USD/BRL is the quietest pair: spot at 5.1612 versus a median of 5.10, a 1.20% gap, with 19 firms covering it. ING at 4.5 is the most bearish-USD desk; BNP Paribas at 5.7 is the most bullish-USD. The range of 1.2 points is the tightest in the basket in absolute terms, and the near-flat gap to spot means BRL is not a high-conviction directional trade in the consensus — it is more of a carry-hold position for desks that find the real rate attractive without a strong view on the level.
USD/KRW sits 2.97% above the 1380 median, with Citi at 1460 and Standard Chartered at 1280 anchoring the poles. The 180-point range across 18 firms reflects Korea's sensitivity to global risk appetite and semiconductor cycle timing — two variables where desk views diverge materially heading into Q4.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus?
Twenty firms are represented across the six pairs, with individual pair coverage ranging from 18 to 19 desks.
Which EM pair has the largest gap between spot and the Dec-26 consensus median?
USD/INR, where spot at 95.43 sits 9.69% above the median Dec-26 target of 87.0 — the widest dislocation in the basket as of August 13, 2026.
Which pair shows the widest forecast dispersion?
USD/TRY, with a 12.8-point range between the lowest target (UBS at 43.5) and the highest (ING at 56.3) across 18 contributing firms.
Is there any pair where consensus is essentially flat to spot?
USD/ZAR: spot 16.1336 versus a median Dec-26 target of 16.175, a gap of just 0.26%, making it the closest-to-consensus pair in the basket despite a 2.5-point spread between the most bearish and most bullish desks.
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→ See the full ING FX outlook for their USD/TRY and USD/BRL targets, which anchor opposite ends of the consensus on both pairs.
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