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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, cross-firm consensus as of September 21, 2026 skews neutral, with spot levels sitting close to median Dec-26 targets on most pairs — the notable exception being USD/INR, where spot trades 8.13% above the 19-firm median, and USD/MXN, where spot is 3.55% below its 18-firm median. Dispersion is widest in USD/INR and USD/TRY, narrowest in USD/BRL.
Key Numbers
- USD/INR spot vs median: spot 95.805, median Dec-26 target 88.6 — gap of +8.13%, the largest across the six pairs
- USD/MXN spot vs median: spot 17.2163, median Dec-26 target 17.85 — spot is 3.55% below consensus
- USD/TRY spot vs median: spot 48.8027, median Dec-26 target 50.5 — spot is 3.36% below consensus
- USD/BRL: spot 5.1084 vs median 5.10 — gap of just +0.16%, tightest consensus alignment
- USD/ZAR: spot 16.2364 vs median 16.10 — gap of +0.85%; 17-firm range 15.5–18.0
- USD/KRW: spot 1374.66 vs median 1380.0 — gap of -0.39%; 17-firm range 1280.0–1460.0
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Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered (StanChart) | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura (NMR) | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas (BNP) | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank (DB) | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs (GS) | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered (StanChart) | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
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Where Is Consensus Crowded, and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL is the most crowded trade in the roundup. With spot at 5.1084 and the 18-firm median at 5.10, the gap is effectively zero. The range of 4.5–5.7 is not trivial in absolute terms, but the clustering around spot suggests desks have little conviction in a directional break before year-end. ING sits at the bullish-USD extreme with a 4.5 target; BNP Paribas anchors the bearish-USD end at 5.7. Both are outliers relative to the median.
USD/INR carries the widest effective dispersion in spot-adjusted terms. The 19-firm range runs from 83.5 (UBS) to 97.0 (Goldman Sachs) — a 13.5-handle spread — and spot at 95.805 sits well above the 88.6 median. That 8.13% gap is the single largest spot-to-median divergence across the six pairs. Notably, both named outliers carry a bearish stance on USD/INR, yet their targets bracket a wide range: UBS sees material rupee appreciation, Goldman sees spot remaining near current levels. The median implies a significant USD pullback from here; the question is whether the RBI's management of the exchange rate compresses that move or delays it.
USD/TRY dispersion is also elevated. The 17-firm range spans 43.5 to 56.3 — a 12.8-handle gap — with spot at 48.8027 sitting 3.36% below the 50.5 median. UBS at 43.5 (bearish on USD/TRY) implies meaningful lira appreciation; ING at 56.3 (neutral) implies continued depreciation pressure. The divergence reflects genuine disagreement on whether Turkey's disinflation path holds and whether the CBRT can sustain real-rate credibility through year-end.
USD/ZAR sits in the middle. The 15.5–18.0 range across 17 firms is wide in percentage terms, and the Citi-DB spread — 2.5 handles — captures the bull-bear divide cleanly. Citi at 18.0 (bullish USD) and Deutsche Bank at 15.5 (bearish USD) represent the outer bounds; spot at 16.2364 is 0.85% above the 16.10 median, placing it essentially at consensus.
Which Pairs Are Desks Pushing for Carry?
USD/TRY remains the highest-carry EM pair in the set by construction, and the neutral-to-bearish tilt across the 17-firm panel suggests most desks see the carry as at least partially compensated through year-end — even if the range of outcomes is wide. The median Dec-26 target of 50.5 implies modest further lira depreciation from spot, consistent with a carry-positive but not carry-dominant view.
USD/MXN is the other pair where carry framing is explicit. Both named firms — Nomura at 19.2 and StanChart at 17.0 — carry a bearish USD/MXN stance, meaning both expect the peso to hold or strengthen. Spot at 17.2163 is already 3.55% below the 17.85 median, which implies the market has moved ahead of consensus. If spot is correct, the carry trade has already partially repriced; if consensus is correct, there is mean-reversion risk back toward 17.85.
USD/KRW and USD/ZAR show the least carry-driven narrative in the current consensus, with both pairs sitting within 1% of their respective medians and dispersion driven more by macro risk scenarios than rate differentials.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the cross-EM consensus for December 2026?
Consensus is broadly neutral across the six pairs. Spot-to-median gaps range from +0.16% (USD/BRL) to +8.13% (USD/INR), with no single pair showing a strong directional tilt in the aggregate 17–19 firm panels.
Which EM pair has the widest forecast dispersion as of September 21, 2026?
USD/INR carries the widest named range at 83.5–97.0 across 19 firms, followed by USD/TRY at 43.5–56.3 across 17 firms. Both pairs reflect genuine macro disagreement rather than data-revision noise.
Which desk is most bullish on the US dollar across EM pairs?
Citi holds the most bullish-USD stance in two pairs — USD/ZAR (target 18.0) and USD/KRW (target 1460.0) — making it the most consistently USD-bullish name in this roundup.
Where does spot trade relative to the Dec-26 median for USD/BRL?
Spot at 5.1084 is essentially flat to the 18-firm median of 5.10, a gap of just +0.16% — the tightest alignment of any pair in the set.
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→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts, or browse the complete EM FX forecast panel for all 20 contributing desks.
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