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Spot levels across the six tracked EM pairs sit close to median Dec-26 consensus on most crosses, with the notable exception of USD/INR — where the 8.20% gap between spot (95.863) and the median target (88.6) is the widest dislocation in the panel. USD/TRY is the second-largest outlier, with spot (48.785) running 3.40% below the median target of 50.5.
Key Numbers
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Standard Chartered · Commerzbank · Kotaksecurities · Citi +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-20 16:08 UTC
- USD/MXN spot: 17.2291 | Median Dec-26: 17.85 | Spot is 3.48% below consensus (USD-bearish lean)
- USD/BRL spot: 5.1442 | Median Dec-26: 5.10 | Spot is 0.87% above consensus
- USD/ZAR spot: 16.2599 | Median Dec-26: 16.10 | Spot is 0.99% above consensus
- USD/TRY spot: 48.785 | Median Dec-26: 50.50 | Spot is 3.40% below consensus (USD-bearish lean)
- USD/INR spot: 95.863 | Median Dec-26: 88.60 | Spot is 8.20% above consensus — widest gap in the panel
- USD/KRW spot: 1385.95 | Median Dec-26: 1380.0 | Spot is 0.43% above consensus — tightest gap in the panel
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
The table below covers the named outlier desks for each pair. Targets are Dec-26 medians from the respective firm forecasts; stance reflects each desk's view on the EM currency itself.
| Firm | Pair | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | USD/MXN | 17.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | USD/MXN | 19.2 | bearish |
| ING | USD/BRL | 4.5 | neutral |
| BNP Paribas | USD/BRL | 5.7 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | USD/ZAR | 15.5 | bearish |
| Citi | USD/ZAR | 18.0 | bullish |
| UBS | USD/TRY | 43.5 | bearish |
| ING | USD/TRY | 56.3 | neutral |
| UBS | USD/INR | 83.5 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | USD/INR | 97.0 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | USD/KRW | 1280.0 | bearish |
| Citi | USD/KRW | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Crowded, and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/KRW and USD/BRL are the most crowded consensus trades. On KRW, spot at 1385.95 is only 0.43% above the 1380.0 median, and the 1280–1460 range, while nominally wide, reflects a 17-firm panel that clusters tightly around the mid-handle. The carry case for KRW is modest; the consensus is essentially a range-hold call through year-end.
Dispersion is most pronounced in USD/INR and USD/TRY. On INR, the 83.5–97.0 range across 19 firms spans 13.5 figures — the widest absolute band in the panel. UBS anchors the bearish-USD end at 83.5, implying a sharp rupee appreciation from spot. Goldman Sachs sits at 97.0 — nearly at current spot — suggesting the rupee stays under pressure through December. Both desks carry a bearish stance on EM FX in this pair, but their targets diverge by 13.5 figures, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the RBI's tolerance for further INR weakness and the trajectory of India's current account.
On TRY, the 43.5–56.3 range across 17 firms is a 12.8-figure spread. UBS at 43.5 implies lira appreciation from the 48.785 spot — an aggressive call given Turkey's inflation dynamics. ING at 56.3 sees further lira depreciation consistent with the structural carry-bleed pattern. The 3.40% spot-below-consensus gap suggests the market has moved faster toward lira stability than the median desk anticipated.
USD/ZAR sits in the middle of the dispersion ranking. The 15.5–18.0 range is a 2.5-figure spread across 17 firms. Deutsche Bank at 15.5 (bearish USD) implies rand strength, while Citi at 18.0 (bullish EM FX) sees further rand softness. Spot at 16.2599 is 0.99% above the 16.10 median — a marginal USD-long bias in current pricing.
Which Pairs Are the Desks Pushing for Carry?
The carry narrative in this panel concentrates in MXN and TRY, the two pairs where spot is running below the median Dec-26 target — implying that the consensus expects further USD appreciation from here, which in carry terms means the EM currency needs to deliver yield to compensate holders.
On USD/MXN, the 3.48% spot-below-consensus gap is the second-largest in the panel. Standard Chartered at 17.0 is the most USD-bearish desk, implying peso appreciation from the 17.2291 spot — a carry-positive outcome for MXN longs. Nomura at 19.2 is the most USD-bullish, seeing the peso giving back ground through year-end. The 18-firm panel median of 17.85 sits above spot, suggesting the consensus does not fully endorse the carry-long thesis — it prices in modest peso depreciation, which erodes the carry advantage unless the rate differential is wide enough to absorb it.
TRY carry is structurally different: the high nominal yield is offset by persistent depreciation expectations. The ING 56.3 target implies a 15.4% depreciation from spot, which would consume most or all of the carry for an unhedged position. UBS at 43.5 is the outlier that makes TRY carry viable on a total-return basis — but that call requires a degree of CBRT credibility the consensus does not broadly assign.
INR carry is not a theme the panel is pushing. The 8.20% spot-above-consensus gap — the largest in the panel — reflects a rupee that has weakened materially beyond where most desks expected it to trade. At 95.863, spot is already above the Goldman 97.0 upper bound of the consensus range on a near-term basis, and the median reversion target of 88.6 implies significant rupee recovery. That is a mean-reversion call, not a carry call.
Frequently Asked Questions
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus?
The panel spans 20 firms in aggregate, with coverage per pair ranging from 17 firms (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 19 firms (USD/INR).
Which EM pair has the widest forecast dispersion as of September 20, 2026?
USD/INR carries the widest named range in the panel at 83.5–97.0 (a 13.5-figure spread across 19 firms), followed by USD/TRY at 43.5–56.3 across 17 firms.
Which pair is closest to its Dec-26 consensus target right now?
USD/KRW, where spot at 1385.95 is only 0.43% above the 1380.0 median Dec-26 target — the tightest gap in the six-pair panel.
Is the overall EM FX consensus bullish or bearish on the US dollar?
The implied consensus bias across the panel is neutral. Most pairs show spot within 1% of the median target; the two larger dislocations (USD/INR and USD/MXN) pull in opposite directions relative to consensus.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts, or browse the complete EM FX forecast panel for all tracked pairs and firm-level targets.
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