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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, 21 firms have submitted December 2026 targets as of September 3, 2026; spot-to-median gaps range from a near-flat +0.12% in USD/BRL to a substantial +6.69% in USD/INR, with dispersion widest in USD/TRY and USD/INR.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: unavailable at the cross-EM aggregate level; pair-level spots are used throughout
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26): unavailable as a single EM-wide figure; pair medians range from 5.10 (USD/BRL) to 1,380 (USD/KRW)
- Dispersion (max − min): widest in USD/INR (97.0 − 83.5 = 13.5 figures) and USD/TRY (56.3 − 43.5 = 12.8 figures)
- Spot vs median gap: USD/INR most offside at +6.69%; USD/BRL most anchored at +0.12%
- Most bullish-USD outlier by pair: Goldman Sachs (USD/INR, 97.0), Citi (USD/ZAR, 18.0; USD/KRW, 1,460)
- Most bearish-USD outlier by pair: UBS (USD/INR, 83.5; USD/TRY, 43.5), Standard Chartered (USD/MXN, 17.0; USD/KRW, 1,280)
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Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Standard Chartered · Commerzbank · Kotaksecurities · Citi +18 more
22 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-03 16:04 UTC
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered | 1,280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1,460.0 | bullish |
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Where Is Consensus Crowded, and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL is the tightest consensus on the board. Spot at 5.1059 sits within a rounding error of the 19-firm median of 5.10, a gap of just +0.12%. The range of 4.5 to 5.7 is non-trivial in percentage terms, but the clustering near spot suggests the panel sees little directional conviction — ING at 4.5 is the lone outlier pulling the low end, while BNP Paribas at 5.7 anchors the high. Neither desk is far enough from the pack to generate a tradeable signal from consensus alone.
USD/INR is the opposite. The 20-firm panel spans 83.5 to 97.0 — a 13.5-figure range — and spot at 94.475 sits 6.69% above the 88.55 median. That is the largest spot-to-consensus gap in this roundup and implies the panel, in aggregate, expects meaningful INR appreciation by year-end. The divergence between UBS at 83.5 and Goldman Sachs at 97.0 is striking: both carry a bearish stance on USD/INR, yet their December targets differ by 13.5 figures. That is a disagreement about the pace and magnitude of rupee recovery, not about direction.
USD/TRY carries the second-widest range at 12.8 figures (43.5 to 56.3). Spot at 48.31 sits 3.85% below the 18-firm median of 50.25, meaning the panel expects further lira depreciation. UBS at 43.5 is the most aggressive lira-bull call; ING at 56.3 sits well above spot and median alike. The 12.8-figure spread reflects genuine macro uncertainty around Turkish monetary policy rather than a data-collection artifact.
USD/MXN shows a notable structural feature: both Nomura (19.2) and Standard Chartered (17.0) carry a bearish stance, yet their targets bracket a 2.2-figure range. Spot at 16.965 sits 5.22% below the 19-firm median of 17.90, the second-largest spot-to-consensus gap after USD/INR. The panel therefore expects peso softening from current levels — a meaningful directional lean.
Which Pairs Are the Desks Pushing for Carry?
Carry logic points most directly to USD/TRY and USD/BRL, the two pairs where nominal rate differentials remain largest. The USD/TRY panel median at 50.25 implies continued lira depreciation, which erodes carry in total-return terms; nonetheless, the high nominal yield in Turkey keeps it on carry screens despite the depreciation drag embedded in the consensus path. ING's neutral stance at 56.3 implicitly prices in more depreciation than carry can offset, while UBS's 43.5 target suggests the carry survives if lira stabilises near current levels.
USD/BRL at a near-flat consensus gap is a cleaner carry story: if spot stays anchored near 5.10 through December, the real's double-digit nominal yield accrues without meaningful FX drag. The tight consensus range reduces the tail risk of a sharp BRL move disrupting the carry trade — though BNP Paribas's 5.7 target is a reminder that fiscal risk premium can reprice quickly.
USD/ZAR and USD/KRW offer less carry appeal. The ZAR panel (18-firm, median 16.175) is nearly flat to spot at 16.009, a -1.03% gap, with Deutsche Bank at 15.5 and Citi at 18.0 representing the widest directional split in the ZAR space. KRW is a low-yielder; Standard Chartered's 1,280 target implies significant won appreciation, but the 18-firm median at 1,380 is only modestly above spot at 1,356.58.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many firms are in the September 3, 2026 EM FX consensus?
Twenty-one firms contributed forecasts across the six pairs as of September 3, 2026, with individual pair panels ranging from 18 firms (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 20 firms (USD/INR).
Which EM pair has the largest gap between spot and the December 2026 consensus median?
USD/INR, where spot at 94.475 sits 6.69% above the 20-firm median target of 88.55 — the widest spot-to-consensus divergence in this roundup.
Which pair shows the widest forecast dispersion among the six tracked?
USD/INR carries the widest absolute range at 13.5 figures (83.5 to 97.0 across the two named outliers), followed by USD/TRY at 12.8 figures (43.5 to 56.3).
Is there any pair where consensus is effectively neutral on direction?
USD/BRL comes closest: spot at 5.1059 versus a 19-firm median of 5.10 produces a gap of just +0.12%, and ING explicitly carries a neutral stance at 4.5.
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→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts, or browse the complete EM FX forecast panel for all 21 contributing desks.
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