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As of September 17, 2026, the six EM pairs tracked by FX Bank Forecast sit in markedly different positions relative to December 2026 consensus targets: USD/KRW is essentially at consensus, USD/INR trades more than 8% above it, and USD/TRY is nearly 4% below — a spread of outcomes that reflects divergent macro backdrops rather than a single EM narrative.
Key Numbers
- USD/INR spot (95.93) is the furthest from consensus (median Dec-26: 88.6), a gap of +8.27% — the widest across all six pairs
- USD/KRW spot (1,384.28) vs median (1,380.0): gap of +0.31%, the tightest
- USD/TRY spot (48.68) sits 3.61% below median (50.5), implying consensus expects further lira depreciation
- USD/MXN spot (17.22) is 3.53% below median (17.85), a similar dynamic
- Widest intra-pair dispersion: USD/INR (83.5–97.0, range of 13.5 figures) and USD/ZAR (15.5–18.0, range of 2.5)
- Firmest consensus: USD/KRW (1,280–1,460) and USD/BRL (4.5–5.7) show the most clustered distributions relative to spot
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Standard Chartered · Commerzbank · Kotaksecurities · Citi +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-17 11:06 UTC
The table below covers the highest- and lowest-target desk for each pair as reported in the September 17, 2026 consensus sample. Stance is expressed in EM FX space: bullish = expects EM FX to rise (USD to fall), bearish = expects EM FX to fall (USD to rise).
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered | 1,280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1,460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/KRW and USD/BRL are the two pairs where spot and median are nearly coincident — +0.31% and +1.11% gaps respectively — suggesting the consensus has little directional conviction to offer from current levels. The 17-firm USD/KRW sample (range: 1,280–1,460) is wide in absolute terms but the midpoint is close enough to spot that neither bulls nor bears are pressing a strong view. USD/BRL tells a similar story: ING sits at 4.5 and BNP Paribas at 5.7 against a spot of 5.16, a range that straddles spot with the median (5.1) marginally below it.
Dispersion is most acute in USD/INR. The 13.5-figure gap between UBS at 83.5 and Goldman Sachs at 97.0 is the largest absolute range in the sample, and both desks are formally bearish on USD/INR — meaning the disagreement is not about direction but magnitude. Spot at 95.93 is already near Goldman's ceiling, implying the 19-firm consensus median of 88.6 requires a substantial rupee rally that current levels do not corroborate. USD/ZAR also carries notable dispersion: Deutsche Bank at 15.5 versus Citi at 18.0 against a spot of 16.29, with Citi the lone bullish-USD desk in the ZAR sample.
USD/TRY and USD/MXN share a structural feature: spot is below the median, meaning consensus expects further local-currency weakness into December. For TRY, the 3.61% gap reflects the market's embedded assumption of continued disinflation-driven CBRT easing or residual depreciation pressure; for MXN, the 3.53% gap is modest but directionally consistent with desks pricing in some peso softening from current levels.
Which Pairs Are the Carry Desks Pushing?
Carry logic in the current sample gravitates toward MXN and, selectively, INR. USD/MXN at 17.22 with a median target of 17.85 implies modest depreciation, but the 18-firm consensus is uniformly bearish on USD/MXN — Standard Chartered at 17.0 and Nomura at 19.2 both carry bearish stances despite the 2.2-figure gap between their targets. That uniform directional label alongside Mexico's historically elevated carry suggests desks are framing MXN as a carry vehicle even where they disagree on the terminal level.
INR carry is more contested. The spot-to-consensus gap of 8.27% is large enough that desks expecting rupee appreciation are implicitly pricing in a significant re-rating — one that would enhance total returns for long-INR positions if realised. However, the dispersion between UBS and Goldman is a caution: a 13.5-figure range on a single pair across a 19-firm sample indicates the carry thesis is not consensus-grade. TRY carry remains structurally compromised; ING's neutral stance at 56.3 and UBS's bearish stance at 43.5 bracket a wide range, and the lira's inflation-adjusted carry profile limits conviction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the cross-EM consensus target for December 2026?
Median December 2026 targets vary by pair: 17.85 for USD/MXN, 5.1 for USD/BRL, 16.1 for USD/ZAR, 50.5 for USD/TRY, 88.6 for USD/INR, and 1,380 for USD/KRW, drawn from a sample of 17–19 firms depending on the pair.
Which EM pair has the widest analyst disagreement as of September 17, 2026?
USD/INR carries the widest dispersion, with a 13.5-figure range between UBS (83.5) and Goldman Sachs (97.0) across 19 firms — the largest absolute spread in the six-pair sample.
Which pair is closest to its December 2026 consensus target right now?
USD/KRW, where spot (1,384.28) is just 0.31% above the 17-firm median target of 1,380 — effectively at consensus.
Where does spot sit furthest from consensus?
USD/INR, where spot at 95.93 is 8.27% above the median December 2026 target of 88.6, implying consensus expects a material rupee rally that has not yet materialised.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts, or browse the complete EM FX consensus tracker for the latest firm-by-firm targets across all tracked pairs.
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