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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, spot rates as of September 24, 2026 sit within a few percent of December-2026 consensus medians for most pairs — the notable exception is USD/INR, where spot trades 8.24% above the median target, the widest gap in the set. Twenty firms contribute to the aggregate consensus; the pair-level firm counts range from 17 to 19.
Key Numbers
- Live spot and cross-firm aggregate consensus: unavailable at the EM FX composite level; pair-level data drives this note
- Widest spot-vs-median gap: USD/INR at +8.24% (spot 95.90, median Dec-26 target 88.6)
- Tightest spot-vs-median gap: USD/KRW at -0.91% (spot 1367.5, median Dec-26 target 1380.0)
- Widest intra-pair range: USD/TRY, 43.5–56.3 (spread of 12.8 handles)
- Most bearish-USD outlier by range: UBS targets USD/TRY 43.5 and USD/INR 83.5
- Most bullish-USD outlier by range: Citi targets USD/ZAR 18.0 and USD/KRW 1460.0
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered (StanChart) | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank (DB) | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered (StanChart) | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura (NMR) | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas (BNP) | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs (GS) | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Table shows the high and low target desk for each pair, sorted by target within pair. Full firm-count per pair: USD/MXN 18, USD/BRL 18, USD/ZAR 17, USD/TRY 17, USD/INR 19, USD/KRW 17.
Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/BRL and USD/KRW are the tightest consensus pairs this week. USD/BRL spot at 5.1625 sits just 1.23% above the 5.10 median, and the 18-firm range of 4.5–5.7 is relatively contained given Brazil's fiscal backdrop. USD/KRW at 1367.5 is within 0.91% of the 1380.0 median; the 1280.0–1460.0 range is wide in handle terms but the median is well-anchored, suggesting most desks cluster near the centre.
Dispersion is most acute in USD/TRY and USD/INR. The TRY range spans 12.8 handles (43.5 to 56.3), a 29% spread relative to the 50.5 median — UBS sits at the bearish-USD extreme at 43.5 while ING holds a neutral stance with a 56.3 target. That gap reflects genuine disagreement on the pace of CBRT easing and whether the lira carry trade remains viable into year-end. USD/INR dispersion is structurally different: the 83.5–97.0 range (13.5 handles) is driven by a single bullish-USD outlier in Goldman Sachs at 97.0, which sits above spot at 95.90. The 88.6 median implies meaningful rupee appreciation from here, but the GS view — that the dollar holds near current levels — keeps the distribution skewed.
USD/ZAR sits in the middle of the dispersion spectrum. The 15.5–18.0 range (2.5 handles) reflects a genuine split: Deutsche Bank is the most bearish-USD desk at 15.5, implying rand strength from the 16.39 spot, while Citi at 18.0 sees dollar resilience. The 16.10 median sits 1.77% below spot, a mild bearish-USD lean for the consensus as a whole.
Which Pairs Are Desks Pushing for Carry?
Carry logic is most explicit in the TRY and BRL framing. USD/TRY spot at 48.86 trades 3.26% below the 50.5 median — meaning consensus expects further lira depreciation, consistent with a carry-and-fade structure where desks collect the rate differential while pencilling in gradual nominal weakening. The wide dispersion (43.5–56.3) signals that the carry thesis is contested: UBS appears to price a more aggressive CBRT cutting cycle that compresses the carry premium, while ING holds a neutral stance at 56.3, implying the carry trade stays intact but lira depreciation accelerates.
USD/BRL is the other pair where carry framing is evident. The 5.10 median sits marginally below the 5.1625 spot (-1.23%), a near-flat consensus that is consistent with desks holding BRL for the carry rather than for directional appreciation. BNP Paribas at 5.7 is the most bearish-USD desk in the pair — a view that implies carry erosion if Brazil's fiscal premium widens — while ING at 4.5 with a neutral stance represents the optimistic tail.
MXN is the pair where the carry story is most complicated. Spot at 17.5375 is 1.75% below the 17.85 median, meaning consensus expects modest peso weakening. Both desks in the data — Nomura at 19.2 and StanChart at 17.0 — carry a bearish stance on USD/MXN (i.e., peso-supportive), yet the median sits above spot. That tension suggests the broader 18-firm panel is more cautious on peso carry than the two outlier desks imply.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the December 2026 consensus target for USD/INR?
The 19-firm median December 2026 target for USD/INR is 88.6, against a spot of 95.90 — a gap of 8.24%, the widest across the six pairs in this roundup.
Which EM pair has the widest forecast dispersion as of September 24, 2026?
USD/TRY carries the widest range at 43.5–56.3 across 17 firms, a spread of 12.8 handles around the 50.5 median; USD/INR is close behind at 83.5–97.0.
Which desk is most bearish on the US dollar across EM pairs?
UBS holds the most bearish-USD positions in both USD/TRY (target 43.5) and USD/INR (target 83.5), the lowest targets in their respective pairs.
How many firms contribute to this EM FX consensus?
Twenty firms contribute in aggregate; pair-level counts are 19 for USD/INR, 18 for USD/MXN and USD/BRL, and 17 for USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, and USD/KRW.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook, including the USD/INR 97.0 year-end call, at Goldman Sachs forecasts. For the complete cross-EM consensus table and firm-by-firm breakdowns, visit FX Bank Forecast EM coverage.
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