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Cross-EM consensus as of September 23, 2026 is broadly neutral, with spot trading near median December targets on most pairs — the notable exception being USD/INR, where spot at 95.73 sits 8.05% above the 88.6 median, and USD/TRY, where spot trails the 50.5 median by 3.29%. The 20-firm panel spans six pairs, and dispersion is widest in the pairs where structural macro uncertainty is highest.
Key Numbers
- Cross-EM consensus bias: neutral (20 firms across six pairs)
- USD/INR: spot 95.73 vs. Dec-26 median 88.6 — spot is 8.05% above consensus, the widest gap in the roundup
- USD/TRY: spot 48.84 vs. Dec-26 median 50.5 — spot is 3.29% below consensus; range 43.5–56.3 (12.8-handle spread)
- USD/ZAR: range 15.5–18.0 (2.5-handle spread); Citi most bullish-USD at 18.0, Deutsche Bank most bearish-USD at 15.5
- USD/MXN: spot 17.49 vs. median 17.85; StanChart most bearish-USD at 17.0, Nomura most bullish-USD at 19.2
- USD/KRW: tightest spot-to-median gap at -0.98%; range 1280–1460
Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
The table below covers the highest- and lowest-target desk for each pair drawn from the 20-firm panel. Stance is expressed in EM FX space: bullish means the desk expects EM FX to rise (USD to weaken); bearish means EM FX to fall (USD to strengthen).
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/KRW and USD/MXN carry the narrowest spot-to-median gaps (-0.98% and -2.01% respectively), suggesting the panel is broadly aligned with current price action on both pairs. USD/MXN is notable in that both the high-target desk (Nomura at 19.2) and the low-target desk (StanChart at 17.0) register as bearish on EM FX — meaning even the most USD-bullish MXN call in the panel still reflects a depreciation view rather than a structural peso recovery. That internal consistency makes the MXN consensus one of the more crowded in the roundup.
USD/TRY presents the widest absolute range: 43.5 (UBS, bearish) to 56.3 (ING, neutral), a 12.8-handle spread against a spot of 48.84. The 3.29% spot-to-median gap — spot below median — implies the panel, in aggregate, expects further lira depreciation from current levels, but the UBS anchor at 43.5 is a significant outlier, embedding a material lira recovery scenario that the broader panel does not endorse. With 17 firms covering the pair, the range reflects genuine disagreement about the pace of CBRT policy normalisation and whether the disinflation path holds.
USD/INR is the pair where the spot-to-consensus gap is most operationally significant. At 95.73, spot sits 8.05% above the 88.6 December median — the largest positive gap in the roundup. Both named outliers, UBS at 83.5 and Goldman Sachs at 97.0, are classified bearish on EM FX, yet their targets diverge by 13.5 handles. The 19-firm panel covering INR is the largest in the roundup, and the 88.6 median implies a substantial rupee recovery from spot — a call that requires either a meaningful shift in RBI intervention posture or a broad USD reversal that the rest of the EM complex has not yet priced.
Which Pairs Carry the Carry Desks Are Pushing?
USD/TRY remains the highest-yielding pair in the panel by construction — Turkish overnight rates remain elevated relative to the EM universe, and even the most bearish-USD TRY desk (UBS at 43.5) is implicitly embedding a carry-adjusted return that compensates for lira risk. The median target of 50.5 against spot at 48.84 suggests the panel expects modest further depreciation, but the carry buffer is sufficient that several desks maintain exposure recommendations despite the directional headwind.
USD/BRL is the second carry-relevant pair. The 18-firm panel has a median of 5.1 against spot at 5.1506 — a near-flat spot-to-median gap of +0.99%. BNP Paribas at 5.7 is the most bullish-USD desk, reflecting fiscal risk premium concerns; ING at 4.5 is the most bearish-USD, a target that would require a meaningful BRL recovery. The tight median-to-spot relationship suggests the panel views BRL carry as roughly fairly priced at current levels, with directional risk skewed by domestic fiscal dynamics rather than external USD drivers.
USD/ZAR, with a 2.5-handle range and a spot-to-median gap of +1.88%, sits in the middle of the carry hierarchy. The Citi bullish-USD call at 18.0 and the Deutsche Bank bearish-USD call at 15.5 reflect South Africa's dual sensitivity to global risk appetite and domestic political economy — a combination that makes consensus-building difficult and carry positioning volatile.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the cross-EM consensus bias as of September 23, 2026?
The implied consensus bias across the six pairs is neutral, based on 20 firms. No single pair shows a strong directional skew in aggregate, though USD/INR and USD/TRY carry the largest spot-to-median divergences.
Which EM pair has the widest forecast dispersion?
USD/TRY has the widest named range in the roundup at 43.5 (UBS) to 56.3 (ING) — a 12.8-handle spread. USD/INR's named range of 83.5–97.0 is also wide at 13.5 handles, with 19 firms contributing.
Where does spot sit relative to the December consensus across pairs?
Spot is above the December median on USD/BRL (+0.99%), USD/ZAR (+1.88%), and USD/INR (+8.05%). Spot is below the median on USD/MXN (-2.01%), USD/TRY (-3.29%), and USD/KRW (-0.98%).
Which desks hold the most extreme EM FX positions in this roundup?
Goldman Sachs targets USD/INR at 97.0 (bearish EM FX, most bullish-USD in that pair) while UBS targets 83.5 (also bearish, most bearish-USD). On USD/KRW, Citi targets 1460 (bullish-USD) against StanChart's 1280 (bearish-USD) — a 180-handle gap on 17 firms.
→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook at Goldman Sachs forecasts, or browse the complete EM FX forecasts coverage across all tracked pairs.
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