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Across the six EM pairs tracked here, the cross-firm consensus as of September 28, 2026 points to a mild USD retreat in most pairs by December, with USD/INR the sharpest outlier — spot sits 8.32% above the median target — while USD/TRY runs 3.01% below consensus, the only pair where spot has overshot in the bearish-USD direction.
Key Numbers
- Firms in consensus: 20
- USD/INR spot-vs-median gap: +8.32% (spot 95.973, median Dec-26 target 88.6) — widest across the six pairs
- USD/TRY spot-vs-median gap: −3.01% (spot 48.982, median Dec-26 target 50.5) — only pair where spot is below consensus
- USD/BRL spot-vs-median gap: +2.44%; USD/ZAR: +1.97%; USD/MXN: +0.77%
- USD/KRW spot-vs-median gap: −1.48% (spot 1359.63, median 1380.0)
- Widest intra-pair range: USD/INR at 83.5–97.0 (13.5 big figures); narrowest: USD/MXN at 17.0–19.2
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Pair-by-Pair Consensus Map
Cross-firm year-end consensus across 9 EM currencies, with terminal-target dispersion and the top-bull / top-bear firm for each. Sorted ascending by gap-to-spot.
Source: Commerzbank · HSBC · Barclays · Nomura +17 more
21 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-28 21:05 UTC
The table below covers the highest- and lowest-target desk for each pair drawn from the 20-firm survey. Targets are December 2026. Stance is expressed in EM FX space: bullish = that desk expects the EM currency to rise (USD to fall); bearish = EM currency to fall (USD to rise).
| Pair | Firm | Dec-2026 Target | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | Standard Chartered | 17.0 | bearish |
| USD/MXN | Nomura | 19.2 | bearish |
| USD/BRL | ING | 4.5 | neutral |
| USD/BRL | BNP Paribas | 5.7 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Deutsche Bank | 15.5 | bearish |
| USD/ZAR | Citi | 18.0 | bullish |
| USD/TRY | UBS | 43.5 | bearish |
| USD/TRY | ING | 56.3 | neutral |
| USD/INR | UBS | 83.5 | bearish |
| USD/INR | Goldman Sachs | 97.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| USD/KRW | Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
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Where Is Consensus Crowded and Where Is Dispersion Widest?
USD/MXN carries the tightest absolute range at 17.0–19.2 across 18 firms, and spot at 17.988 sits only 0.77% above the 17.85 median — the most compressed spot-to-consensus gap in the survey. Both the high-target desk (Nomura at 19.2) and the low-target desk (Standard Chartered at 17.0) register bearish stances on EM FX, meaning the disagreement is about magnitude, not direction. That is a crowded consensus: 18 desks broadly agree the peso weakens, they just differ on how far.
USD/INR is the opposite. The 83.5–97.0 range spans 13.5 figures across 19 firms — the widest absolute dispersion in the group. UBS targets 83.5, implying a sharp rupee recovery from the 95.973 spot; Goldman Sachs targets 97.0, essentially a flat call from here. Both desks carry bearish stances on EM FX (i.e., both expect USD/INR higher than the median), yet their end-points are 13.5 figures apart. The 8.32% spot-to-median gap is the largest in the survey and signals that the market has moved well beyond where the median desk expected it to be by year-end — a meaningful positioning signal.
USD/ZAR sits in the middle on dispersion (15.5–18.0, 17 firms) but carries a notable directional split: Deutsche Bank at 15.5 is bearish on USD/ZAR (rand strengthens), while Citi at 18.0 is bullish (rand weakens). Spot at 16.417 is 1.97% above the 16.1 median, so the consensus leans toward rand recovery, but the 2.5-figure spread between the anchor desks reflects genuine uncertainty around South Africa's fiscal trajectory and commodity exposure.
USD/KRW and USD/TRY are the two pairs where spot has fallen below the median target — meaning the EM currency has already outperformed what the consensus expected for December. For USD/TRY, spot at 48.982 versus a 50.5 median implies the lira has held firmer than the 17-firm survey anticipated, though the 43.5–56.3 range (UBS to ING) remains the second-widest in the survey in percentage terms. For USD/KRW, the −1.48% gap is modest; Citi at 1460 and Standard Chartered at 1280 bracket a 180-won range, reflecting divergent views on Korean export momentum and Fed trajectory.
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Which Pairs Are the Desks Pushing on Carry?
No fresh desk commentary was filed in the seven-day window ending September 28, 2026, so carry rankings here are inferred from target structure and stance distribution rather than explicit desk narrative.
USD/BRL offers the most instructive carry read. The 18-firm median sits at 5.1, with spot at 5.225 — a 2.44% gap. BNP Paribas targets 5.7 (bearish on BRL), while ING targets 4.5 with a neutral stance. Brazil's overnight rate environment historically makes USD/BRL a high-carry long-BRL trade when the consensus is for USD softening; the 5.1 median implies the majority of desks expect at least partial USD retreat, which in a high-carry context means the carry-plus-convergence thesis is intact for BRL longs — though BNP's 5.7 target is a material tail risk.
USD/TRY carry is structurally large given Turkey's rate levels, but the 43.5–56.3 range reflects how much of that carry is consumed by expected depreciation. UBS at 43.5 is the most aggressive lira-recovery call in the survey; the median at 50.5 still implies further TRY weakness from spot, so the net carry benefit is contested. Desks are not uniformly pushing TRY carry here.
For the full firm-level breakdown on any of these pairs, the FX Bank Forecast forecasts directory aggregates all 20 surveyed desks by pair and horizon.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Which EM pair has the largest spot-to-consensus gap as of September 28, 2026?
USD/INR, where spot at 95.973 sits 8.32% above the 19-firm median December target of 88.6 — the widest gap in the six-pair survey.
Which pair shows the tightest consensus?
USD/MXN: 18 firms, a 17.0–19.2 range, and spot only 0.77% above the 17.85 median — the most compressed configuration across the group.
Is there any EM pair where spot has already moved through the consensus target?
Yes — USD/TRY (spot 48.982 vs. median 50.5, gap −3.01%) and USD/KRW (spot 1359.63 vs. median 1380.0, gap −1.48%) both have spot below the December median, meaning those EM currencies have outperformed consensus year-to-date.
How many firms are in the survey?
Twenty firms contribute to the cross-EM consensus as of this edition; individual pair counts range from 17 (USD/ZAR, USD/TRY, USD/KRW) to 19 (USD/INR).
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→ See the full Goldman Sachs FX outlook, including the 97.0 USD/INR December target, at Goldman Sachs forecasts.
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