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GBP/USD spot sits at 1.3645 as of the week of August 23, 2026 — 1.08% above the cross-firm median December-2026 target of 1.35, according to the full GBP/USD bank forecast table. Across 21 contributing desks, the range runs from 1.24 to 1.47, a dispersion of 0.23 — unusually wide for a G10 major and a direct read on how divided the Street is over the UK growth-versus-rates calculus.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 23, 2026): 1.3645
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1.35
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.23
- Gap, spot vs consensus: spot is 1.08% above median — implied consensus bias is bearish
- Most bullish firm: Morgan Stanley at 1.47
- Most bearish firm: Citi at 1.24
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.24 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.28 | bullish |
| Nomura | 1.29 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 1.33 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 1.33 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.36 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.36 | neutral |
| ING | 1.35 | neutral |
| UBS | 1.35 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.37 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 1.37 | bullish |
| MUFG | 1.40 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 1.402 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.42 | bullish |
Which Banks See BoE Cutting Faster Than the Fed — and What Does That Mean for Year-End Targets?
The central fault line in Cable forecasting right now is the relative pace of easing: desks that price BoE cuts arriving sooner and deeper than Fed cuts tend to cluster at the bearish end of the target distribution, since a faster-easing Bank of England compresses UK-US rate differentials in sterling's disfavour.
Citi sits at the extreme with a 1.24 year-end target — the lowest in the 21-firm panel. The desk's framework prices aggressive BoE action against a Fed that remains cautious, eroding the carry support that has kept Cable elevated through mid-2026. J.P. Morgan lands at 1.28, having cut its target from 1.36, and shares the view that UK growth momentum is insufficient to keep the MPC on hold while the FOMC moves slowly. Nomura at 1.29 occupies similar territory, flagging UK fiscal drag as a secondary headwind that reinforces the case for earlier BoE cuts relative to Fed timing.
At the other end, desks that see the Fed moving first — or at least in parallel — arrive at materially higher targets. Deutsche Bank at 1.42 and Commerzbank at 1.402 both argue that dollar weakness, driven by Fed easing and a softening DXY, provides the primary lift. MUFG at 1.40 takes a similar line. Morgan Stanley's 1.47 — the highest target across all 21 firms — represents the most aggressive expression of this view, embedding both a weaker DXY trajectory and relative UK outperformance.
Why Is Spot Trading Well Above the Consensus Median?
With Cable at 1.3645 and the median target at 1.35, spot is running 1.08% rich to where the aggregate of 21 desks expects it to finish the year. That gap is not large in absolute terms, but the direction is notable: the implied consensus bias is bearish, meaning the majority of year-end targets sit below current levels.
The DXY context matters here. The dollar index has faced persistent selling pressure through 2026 on a combination of Fed pivot expectations and portfolio rebalancing away from US assets — dynamics that have mechanically supported Cable even as UK-specific fundamentals remain mixed. Several desks with bullish GBP/USD stances, including Goldman Sachs at 1.36 and UBS at 1.35, effectively see the pair drifting back toward current spot rather than rallying further — their targets are below the current print, which makes their "bullish" stance a relative call on GBP versus a broader DXY-driven baseline rather than an outright Cable appreciation thesis.
Société Générale at 1.33 is a useful illustration of internal tension in the consensus: the desk is classified bullish on the pair but targets a level 1.3% below spot, reflecting a view that GBP holds up better than alternatives even as Cable itself softens. Bank of America at 1.37 and UOB at 1.37 — UOB having raised its target from 1.3655 — represent the more straightforward constructive reads: modest upside from spot, underpinned by a gradual Fed easing path.
No fresh macro catalysts crossed the tape in the seven days to August 23, leaving positioning and the existing rate-differential narrative as the dominant near-term drivers.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current GBP/USD consensus target for December 2026?
The cross-firm median across 21 contributing desks is 1.35, approximately 1.08% below the August 23, 2026 spot rate of 1.3645.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on Cable?
Dispersion — the gap between the highest and lowest year-end targets — is 0.23, running from Citi's 1.24 to Morgan Stanley's 1.47. That is a substantial spread for a G10 pair and reflects genuine disagreement on the relative BoE-versus-Fed easing path.
Which bank is most bullish on GBP/USD?
Morgan Stanley holds the highest target in the 21-firm panel at 1.47, implying meaningful upside from current spot levels.
Which bank is most bearish on GBP/USD?
Citi carries the lowest target at 1.24, representing a decline of roughly 9% from the August 23, 2026 spot rate of 1.3645.
→ See the full Deutsche Bank FX outlook for the complete rationale behind one of the more constructive year-end targets in the current Cable consensus.
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