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GBP/USD spot sits at 1.3246 as of the week of September 25, 2026, while the full GBP/USD bank forecast table shows a 20-firm median December 2026 target of 1.3600 — leaving cable 2.61% below consensus with a dispersion of 0.26 between the most and least bullish desks.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (September 25, 2026): 1.3246
- Cross-firm consensus Dec-26 target (20 firms): 1.3600
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.26
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.61% (spot well below)
- Most bullish: UBS at 1.5000
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.2400
Where Does Each Desk Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 1.24 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.28 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.30 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.33 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 1.33 | neutral |
| BNP Paribas | 1.35 | bullish |
| ING | 1.35 | neutral |
| Goldman Sachs | 1.36 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.36 | neutral |
| Bank of America | 1.37 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.37 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.40 | bullish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1.42 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.47 | bullish |
| UBS | 1.50 | bullish |
Which Desks See BoE Cutting Faster Than the Fed, and What Does That Mean for Their Targets?
The central fault line in cable forecasting right now is the relative pace of Bank of England easing versus Federal Reserve easing. Desks that model the BoE front-running the Fed on rate cuts tend to carry lower year-end targets, because a faster-cutting BoE compresses the UK-US rate differential and removes a key pillar of sterling support.
J.P. Morgan sits at 1.2800 despite a bullish stance label — a reminder that directional bias and target level can diverge when the base case involves only modest recovery from a lower entry point. Crédit Agricole at 1.3000 and Société Générale at 1.3300 similarly reflect views that BoE cuts will arrive in sufficient volume to keep sterling capped well below the broader consensus. These desks generally argue that UK growth momentum, while not collapsing, is insufficient to justify the BoE holding rates at a premium to the Fed for the duration of 2026.
On the other side, Deutsche Bank at 1.4200, Morgan Stanley at 1.4700, and UBS at 1.5000 embed a scenario in which the Fed cuts more aggressively than the BoE — whether driven by a US growth slowdown, renewed disinflation, or political pressure on the dollar. In that framing, the UK-US rate differential widens in sterling's favour, and cable re-rates materially higher. UBS at 1.5000 represents the most extreme expression of this view, implying roughly 13% upside from current spot — a call that requires both a dovish Fed pivot and continued BoE restraint.
Goldman Sachs and Bank of America, clustered near the 1.36–1.37 median, occupy the centrist position: broadly synchronised easing with modest sterling appreciation as UK data holds up and the dollar softens gradually.
What Is the DXY Backdrop Doing to This Trade?
Cable does not trade in isolation from broader dollar dynamics. The DXY context matters here because roughly half the dispersion in year-end GBP/USD targets is a dollar call dressed in sterling clothing. Desks with the highest cable targets — UBS, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank — are also, in most cases, the desks most bearish on the DXY broadly. A weaker dollar index mechanically lifts cable even if sterling-specific fundamentals remain unremarkable.
Conversely, Citi's 1.2400 floor and JPMorgan's 1.2800 target are consistent with a view that the DXY holds firmer than consensus expects — perhaps because US exceptionalism persists longer, or because the Fed's cutting cycle is shallower and later than the market currently prices. With spot at 1.3246, cable is already trading as though some dollar softening has occurred, yet it remains 2.61% below the 20-firm median. That gap suggests either the dollar has more to give, or sterling-specific headwinds — UK fiscal drag, sluggish productivity, residual trade friction — are keeping the pair from fully pricing the consensus scenario.
No fresh macro catalyst crossed the tape in the seven days through September 25, leaving the pair in a holding pattern that tends to amplify sensitivity to any BoE communication or US payrolls revision.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current GBP/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The 20-firm median target is 1.3600, compiled as of the week of September 25, 2026, against a live spot of 1.3246.
How far is cable trading below consensus?
Spot is 2.61% below the median year-end target, a gap that implies the majority of surveyed desks expect further sterling appreciation before year-end.
Which bank has the highest GBP/USD target and which has the lowest?
UBS carries the most bullish target at 1.5000; Citi anchors the bearish end at 1.2400, producing a 0.26-point dispersion across the full 20-firm panel.
Is the overall consensus bullish or bearish on GBP/USD?
The implied bias is bullish: spot sits well below the median target, and the majority of the 14 most recently updated desks carry a bullish or neutral-to-bullish stance on the pair.
→ See the full UBS FX outlook for the most aggressive year-end cable call in the current consensus panel.
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