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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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usdtry-tcmb
USD/TRY · TCMB Research
Research grouped under the USD/TRY · TCMB pillar — consensus, dispersion, and the gap to spot across firms. Every piece links back to the underlying firm reports.
- ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-3.89% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.30, Median Target 50.25 — Week of September 2, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.30, nearly 4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion separating ING from UBS.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-3.93% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.28, Median Target 50.25 — Week of September 1, 2026
USD/TRY trades 3.93% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-3.98% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Dec-26 Target, Week of Aug 31 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.25 sits 3.98% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's disinflation path.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-3.99% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Median, 12.80 Spread — Week of August 30, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.25 sits 4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-3.99% gap43 reads
USD/TRY: Spot at 48.25, Consensus 50.25, Spread 12.80
USD/TRY trades 3.99% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion exposing deep disagreement on TCMB's inflation exit.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.21% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Median Target, Week of August 27, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 48.14 sits 4.2% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-4.24% gap3 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.12, Dec-26 Median 50.25 — Week of August 26, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.12, roughly 4.2% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point spread separating UBS from ING.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.28% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.10, Median Target 50.25 — Week of August 25, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.10, roughly 4.3% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the lira path.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.31% gap3 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 38.08, Dec-26 Median 50.25 — Week of Aug 24, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.082, roughly 4.3% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a record 12.8-point spread separating UBS from ING.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.35% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.06 vs 50.25 Median Target, Week of August 23, 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.35% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the TCMB's real-rate path.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.35% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 48.06, Spread 12.8 — Week of Aug 21, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 48.06, roughly 4.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.8-point dispersion that is the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.57% gap3 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.95, Dec-26 Target 50.25 — Week of August 20, 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.57% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.60% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.94 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of Aug 19 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.60% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the TCMB's real-rate path.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-4.64% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Dec-26 Target, 12.8-Point Spread — Week of Aug 18, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 47.92 sits 4.64% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a record 12.8-point dispersion separating UBS from ING.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.67% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.90, Dec-26 Median 50.25 — Week of Aug 17, 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.67% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion separating ING's 56.30 from UBS's 43.50.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.71% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.89, Median Target 50.25 — Week of August 16, 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.71% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion signalling the widest disagreement in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.71% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.89 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of Aug 15 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.71% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that ranks among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.71% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.88 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of Aug 14 2026
USD/TRY trades 4.71% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point spread between ING's 56.30 and UBS's 43.50.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.93% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.77, Dec-26 Target 50.25 — Week of August 13, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 47.77, nearly 5% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion separating ING from UBS.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-4.96% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Dec-26 Target, 12.8-Point Spread — Week of August 12, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 47.76 sits nearly 5% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.8-point dispersion that dwarfs any other major EM pair.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-4.99% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.74, Spread 12.8 — Week of Aug 11, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 47.74 against an 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.8-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.04% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.72, Dec-26 Target 50.25 — Week of Aug 10, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5% below the 18-firm consensus target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that marks the widest spread in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-5.07% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.70, Spread Hits 12.80 — Week of Aug 9, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.07% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion separating ING from UBS.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.07% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.70, Median Target 50.25 — Week of August 8, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.07% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on Turkey's real-rate path.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.28% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.60 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of Aug 6 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.28% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.38% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.55, Dec-26 Target 50.25 — Week of August 4, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.40% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Dec-26 Target, 12.80 Spread — Week of August 3, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 47.54, roughly 5.4% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.42% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.52, Median Target 50.25 — Week of August 2, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.42% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.52, Median Target 50.25 — Week of August 1, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.8-point spread separating UBS at 43.5 from ING at 56.3.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-5.42% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.52, Median Target 50.25 — Week of July 31, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point spread separating UBS at 43.50 from ING at 56.30.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.64% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.41, Dec-26 Target 50.25 — Week of July 30, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 47.41, roughly 5.6% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that ranks among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.68% gap4 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.39 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of July 29, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.68% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.71% gap4 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.38, Median Target 50.25 — Week of July 28, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 47.38, roughly 5.7% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that ranks among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·4 min read·-5.78% gap
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.35 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of July 25, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.78% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion separating ING from UBS.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-5.78% gap6 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.35 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of July 24, 2026
USD/TRY trades 5.78% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point spread separating UBS at 43.50 from ING at 56.30.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-6.00% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 50.25 Dec-26 Target, Week of July 23, 2026
Spot USD/TRY at 47.24 sits 6% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-6.04% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.22 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of July 22, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 47.22, roughly 6% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that ranks among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-6.07% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.20, Median Target 50.25 — Week of July 21, 2026
USD/TRY trades at 47.1994, roughly 6% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point spread separating UBS from ING.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-6.11% gap2 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.18, Dec-26 Target 50.25 — Week of July 20, 2026
USD/TRY trades 6.1% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that ranks among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-6.14% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: 47.17 Spot vs 50.25 Target, Week of July 19, 2026
USD/TRY trades 6.1% below the 18-firm median Dec-2026 target of 50.25, with a record 12.80-point dispersion exposing deep disagreement over TCMB's real-rate path.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-6.14% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.17, Dec-26 Median 50.25 — Week of July 18, 2026
USD/TRY trades 6.1% below the 18-firm Dec-26 median of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion that is among the widest in EM FX.
usdtry tcmbRead → - ·USD/TRY·5 min read·-6.36% gap1 reads
USD/TRY Consensus Check: Spot at 47.06, Median Target 50.25 — Week of July 16, 2026
USD/TRY trades 6.4% below the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 50.25, with a 12.80-point dispersion reflecting deep disagreement on TCMB's real-rate path.
usdtry tcmbRead →