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USD/KRW spot of 1385.37 is effectively in line with the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380 — a gap of just 0.39% — yet the full USD/KRW bank forecast table reveals a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive desks, the widest dispersion across major Asian pairs this cycle.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 21, 2026): 1385.37
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: 0.39% — spot in line with consensus
- Most bearish on KRW (highest USD/KRW target): Citi at 1460
- Most bullish on KRW (lowest USD/KRW target): StanChart at 1280 (not in table below; among all 18 firms)
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407 | bearish |
| ING | 1425 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460 | bullish |
Why Does the 180-Point Dispersion Persist When Spot Is Near Consensus?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-21 16:05 UTC
The tight spot-to-median gap obscures a structural disagreement on three drivers that desks are weighting very differently.
BoK vs Fed rate path. The majority of the 18 firms in the panel are positioned bearish on USD/KRW — that is, they expect the won to strengthen against the dollar by year-end. That view is predicated on the Fed remaining in easing mode through Q4 2026 while the Bank of Korea holds policy rates at a level that narrows the rate differential. Deutsche Bank, with a 1350 target, and UBS at 1300 are the most aggressive on this thesis — both price a scenario where Fed cuts outpace any BoK easing, compressing the USD/KRW carry premium. Citi, the lone outright bullish desk at 1460, argues the opposite: that domestic demand fragility will force the BoK to cut ahead of the Fed, widening the differential in the dollar's favour.
Semiconductor and tech export cycle. Korea's current-account dynamics are heavily tied to DRAM and NAND pricing and to HBM demand from AI accelerator buildouts. Desks with sub-1370 targets — UBS, HSBC, Morgan Stanley — embed a constructive view on the semiconductor upcycle sustaining Korea's trade surplus through H2 2026, generating structural won demand. J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC at 1430 are more cautious, flagging inventory correction risk in memory and the possibility that capex front-loading by US hyperscalers peaks before year-end, removing a key tailwind for Korean export revenues.
China beta. The won remains one of the highest-beta EM currencies to Chinese growth surprises. Desks that embed a China stabilisation scenario — modest fiscal stimulus, a floor under property sector stress — tend to cluster in the 1350–1385 range. Those pricing a continued Chinese demand drag, or renewed CNY depreciation pressure that spills into regional FX, sit above 1420. ING at 1425 (neutral stance) explicitly flags China beta as the swing factor in its note, making it one of the more transparent articulations of this risk.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and What Regime Do They Price?
At the bearish-KRW extreme, Citi at 1460 stands 80 points above the next-highest target (J.P. Morgan at 1440) and 80 points above the consensus median. The Citi regime requires a combination of BoK preemptive easing, a resilient US labour market that delays Fed cuts, and a deterioration in Korea's terms of trade — a specific macro sequence that the rest of the panel assigns low probability.
At the bullish-KRW extreme, StanChart's 1280 target (among all 18 firms) sits 100 points below the next-lowest desk and prices an aggressive Fed easing cycle coinciding with a semiconductor-driven current-account surplus that draws sustained portfolio inflows into Korean equities and bonds. UBS at 1300 is the closest analogue in the 14-firm table, though still 20 points higher.
Société Générale occupies an interesting middle position: its 1407 target is bearish on USD/KRW in stance but sits well above the median, reflecting a view that won appreciation will be gradual and capped by BoK FX smoothing operations — a regime distinct from both the aggressive-easing desks and the dollar-bull outlier.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does USD/KRW spot stand relative to the bank consensus as of August 21, 2026?
Spot at 1385.37 is 0.39% above the 18-firm Dec-26 median target of 1380 — effectively in line, with the tape offering no directional signal relative to consensus at current levels.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters?
Dispersion across all 18 firms is 180 points (max 1460, min 1280), one of the wider ranges in the G10/EM FX consensus universe, driven primarily by divergent assumptions on the BoK/Fed rate differential and China's growth trajectory.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target and what does that imply?
Citi carries the highest target at 1460, a bullish USD/KRW stance implying the won weakens from current spot — a view that requires the BoK to ease ahead of the Fed and for Korea's export surplus to narrow.
What is the dominant stance across the panel?
Thirteen of the 14 firms in the published table are bearish on USD/KRW (i.e., expect the pair to fall), with one neutral desk (ING). The implied consensus bias across all 18 firms is neutral, reflecting the small spot-to-median gap rather than any shift in the directional skew of individual forecasts.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the most detailed articulation of the bullish USD/KRW case heading into year-end.
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