On this page · 5 sections▾
USD/KRW trades at 1383.9 as of the week of August 22, 2026 — effectively in line with the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380.0, though the full USD/KRW bank forecast table reveals a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive desks. Across 18 contributing firms, the implied consensus bias is neutral, with spot sitting only 0.28% above the median target.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 22, 2026): 1383.9
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap vs spot: 0.28% (spot above consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — highest target: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — lowest target: StanChart at 1280.0
Firm Forecasts — Dec-2026 Targets
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does the BoK/Fed Divergence Anchor the Distribution?
The dominant structuring variable across desks is the relative pace of Bank of Korea easing versus Federal Reserve rate cuts. The majority of the 18 firms in the panel sit in the 1350–1407 band, a cluster consistent with a base case in which the Fed moves first and faster — compressing the rate differential that has kept the won under pressure since 2022. Deutsche Bank at 1350 and UBS at 1300 sit at the aggressive end of that thesis, pricing a scenario where Fed cuts outpace BoK action sufficiently to drive meaningful won appreciation through year-end.
Citi is the sole bullish outlier at 1460, a stance that implies the BoK moves in lockstep with or ahead of the Fed — or that external shocks keep the won offered regardless of rate dynamics. That 1460 target sits 80 points above the next highest print (J.P. Morgan at 1440) and 160 points above the consensus median, making it the clearest expression of a divergent macro regime in the panel. ING at 1425 with a neutral stance occupies a middle ground — acknowledging the rate path uncertainty without committing to directional conviction.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Drives It?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-22 21:04 UTC
At 180 points peak-to-trough, the spread between StanChart's 1280 floor and Citi's 1460 ceiling is substantial relative to spot. Three fault lines explain the bulk of that gap.
Semiconductor and tech export cycle. Korea's current account is structurally tied to global semiconductor demand. Desks projecting a sustained upcycle in memory and logic — driven by AI infrastructure buildout — tend to assign stronger won outcomes. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, both in the 1360–1380 range, appear to embed a constructive export revenue assumption. Desks less convinced of the cycle's durability cluster toward 1420 and above.
China beta. The won carries one of the highest China-growth sensitivities among Asian currencies. A softer Chinese demand backdrop — whether from property sector drag, weak consumer spending, or trade friction — transmits directly to Korean export volumes and, by extension, KRW. The upper tail of the distribution (JPM at 1440, Citi at 1460) likely prices a more cautious China outlook than the median.
Positioning and intervention risk. The BoK has demonstrated a consistent willingness to smooth sharp won depreciation. The lower-target desks — HSBC at 1320, DB at 1350 — may be assigning greater weight to the possibility that intervention acts as a ceiling on USD/KRW, compressing the upside even if macro conditions remain mixed.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
As of the week of August 22, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1383.9.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing firms is 1380.0, placing spot just 0.28% above the consensus level — effectively in line.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast?
Citi holds the top target at 1460.0, a bullish stance on the pair that implies further won weakness from current levels.
How wide is the disagreement among forecasters?
Dispersion across all 18 firms measures 180 points between the highest (1460, Citi) and lowest (1280, StanChart) targets — a range that reflects genuine regime disagreement on the BoK/Fed path, China demand, and the semiconductor export cycle rather than noise around a central view.
---
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's most bullish USD/KRW call at 1460.
Read next
Firms covered in this article
Bank Forecast
Bank of America →
Bank Forecast
Societe Generale →
Bank Forecast
MUFG →
Bank Forecast
Deutsche Bank →
Bank Forecast
JPMorgan →
Bank Forecast
Goldman Sachs →
Bank Forecast
Citi →
Bank Forecast
Commerzbank →
Bank Forecast
UBS →
Bank Forecast
ING →
Bank Forecast
Nomura →
Bank Forecast
HSBC →
Bank Forecast
Morgan Stanley →
Bank Forecast
RBC →
Continue tracking USD/KRW
More from USD/KRW
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: 1383.87 Spot, 1380 Target — Week of August 25, 2026
Spot USD/KRW at 1383.87 sits just 0.28% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, masking a 180-point dispersion from Citi's 1460 to StanChart's 1280.
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus Check: 1380 Target, 180-Point Spread — Week of August 24, 2026
Spot USD/KRW at 1380.68 sits within 0.05% of the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, masking a 180-point dispersion from 1280 to 1460.
- USD/KRW
USD/KRW Consensus at 1380 With a 180-Point Spread: August 2026
Spot USD/KRW at 1385.98 sits within 0.43% of the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1380, masking a 180-point gulf between Citi and StanChart.
Share