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USD/KRW spot of 1383.87 is effectively in line with the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380.0, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table — but that surface calm conceals a 180-point spread across 18 contributing desks, the widest of any major EM Asia pair this cycle.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 25, 2026): 1383.87
- Cross-firm consensus Dec-26 target (median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.28% (spot fractionally above)
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW sit so close to consensus despite a 180-point dispersion?
The 0.28% gap between spot and the median target is arithmetically unremarkable but strategically significant. With 13 of 14 reported desks carrying a bearish USD/KRW stance — meaning they expect the pair to fall from current levels — the median is anchored by a dense cluster between 1350 and 1407. Spot has drifted into that cluster, which explains the near-zero gap. The 180-point dispersion is driven almost entirely by the tails: Citi at 1460 on one end and StanChart at 1280 on the other. Strip those two and the interquartile range narrows sharply, suggesting the bulk of the street is pricing a modest, orderly KRW appreciation through year-end rather than a directional break.
The macro framing matters here. The BoK has maintained a cautious easing posture relative to the Fed, which has kept the rate differential from widening as aggressively as it did in 2022–23. Desks expecting KRW strength — i.e., a lower USD/KRW — are largely pricing a scenario where the Fed cuts faster than the BoK through H2 2026, compressing the differential and removing the carry penalty on KRW. Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank, both at 1380, sit exactly at the median and represent the consensus base case: modest KRW appreciation, no regime shift.
What are the semiconductor cycle and China beta doing to the dispersion?
KRW is structurally tethered to two variables that are themselves highly uncertain in August 2026: the global semiconductor capex and demand cycle, and China's growth trajectory. Samsung and SK Hynix export revenues remain the single largest driver of Korea's current account, and any sustained recovery in HBM and DRAM pricing feeds directly into KRW demand through repatriation flows. Desks with the most aggressive KRW-bullish targets — UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 — appear to be pricing a more complete semiconductor upcycle materialising by Q4 2026, combined with a stabilisation in Chinese domestic demand that lifts Korea's export volumes to its largest trading partner.
Citi, the sole bullish outlier at 1460, takes the opposing view: China beta remains a drag, semiconductor pricing recovery is shallower than consensus expects, and the BoK's easing path is more aggressive than the Fed's — a combination that keeps KRW under pressure. J.P. Morgan at 1440, while technically carrying a bearish USD/KRW stance, sits close enough to Citi's level to suggest a similarly cautious read on the export recovery timeline. The divergence between the 1300–1320 cluster and the 1440–1460 cluster is, in effect, a disagreement about whether the semiconductor upcycle is a 2026 story or slips into 2027.
ING occupies the lone neutral position at 1425, reflecting a view that the BoK-Fed path and China variables roughly offset, leaving USD/KRW range-bound rather than trending. That positioning is consistent with a desk that sees the current spot level as fair value rather than a dislocation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate as of August 25, 2026?
Spot USD/KRW is 1383.87 as of the August 25, 2026 consensus check, placing it 0.28% above the 18-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380.0.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast for December 2026?
Citi carries the top target at 1460.0, the only desk in the 18-firm panel with an outright bullish USD/KRW stance — meaning it expects the pair to rise from current spot.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
Dispersion across all 18 firms is 180 points (max minus min), one of the wider readings for this pair in recent quarters, driven by the distance between Citi's 1460 ceiling and StanChart's 1280 floor.
What is the implied consensus bias for USD/KRW?
The consensus bias is neutral: spot is in line with the median target, and while the majority of desks carry bearish USD/KRW stances, the aggregate signal does not point to a strong directional conviction at current levels.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the rationale behind the most bullish USD/KRW target in the current 18-firm panel.
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