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Spot USD/KRW trades at 1380.28 as of the week of August 27, 2026, essentially flush with the 18-firm cross-bank consensus target of 1380.0 for December 2026 — yet the 180-point dispersion between the most-bullish and most-bearish desks signals genuine disagreement about the macro regime driving the pair into year-end.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 27, 2026): 1380.28
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median (18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: 0.02% — effectively in line
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0 (not in the 14-firm table below; included in full 18-firm consensus)
Where Do the 18 Banks Stand on USD/KRW?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
What Is Driving the BoK-Fed Divergence Debate?
The central tension in USD/KRW forecasting through year-end is the pace of Bank of Korea easing relative to the Fed. The majority of desks in the 18-firm panel carry a bearish USD/KRW stance, implying KRW appreciation — a view that rests on the Fed completing its cutting cycle faster than the BoK, compressing the rate differential that has weighed on the won since 2022. Deutsche Bank at 1350.0 and UBS at 1300.0 sit at the aggressive end of that camp, pricing a scenario where the Fed moves first and decisively, leaving the BoK room to hold or cut only modestly — a configuration that historically supports KRW outperformance.
Citi is the lone bullish outlier at 1460.0, a level that implies a materially different policy path: either the BoK cuts ahead of or faster than the Fed, or external shocks — most plausibly a deterioration in China demand or a semiconductor cycle reversal — keep the current account under pressure. ING at 1425.0 with a neutral stance occupies the middle ground, acknowledging that the BoK's inflation mandate and household debt concerns constrain how quickly it can ease, even if the Fed is ahead.
The BoK held its policy rate at 2.75% through mid-2026 before signalling a cautious easing bias. If that bias materialises into two cuts by December, the rate differential compression argument underpinning the bearish-USD/KRW consensus weakens — which is precisely the risk Citi's 1460.0 target prices.
How Much Does the Semiconductor Cycle and China Beta Matter?
Korea's current account and, by extension, KRW are structurally tied to two variables the rate path alone cannot explain: semiconductor export volumes and China's demand trajectory. Samsung and SK Hynix together account for a disproportionate share of Korea's goods surplus; any softening in HBM or DRAM pricing — whether from inventory restocking delays or a slower-than-expected AI capex cycle — feeds directly into won weakness.
China beta amplifies this. Korea's export basket is among the most China-exposed in Asia; a Chinese growth disappointment, whether from property-sector drag or subdued consumer spending, compresses Korea's trade surplus and removes a key support for KRW. Desks with targets above 1400.0 — J.P. Morgan at 1440.0, RBC at 1430.0, and ING at 1425.0 — appear to embed a more cautious read on both the chip cycle and Chinese demand recovery. The sub-1350.0 targets from UBS and HSBC implicitly assume the semiconductor upcycle remains intact and China stabilises sufficiently to sustain Korea's export surplus through Q4.
With no fresh 7-day catalysts on the tape, the pair's near-perfect alignment with consensus at 1380.28 reflects a market in equilibrium — neither the bull nor the bear case has been confirmed by data flow this week.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate as of August 27, 2026?
Spot USD/KRW is 1380.28, sitting 0.02% from the 18-firm cross-bank consensus target of 1380.0 for December 2026.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast for end-2026?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0, the only desk in the 18-firm panel with an explicitly bullish USD/KRW stance.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters?
Dispersion across all 18 firms is 180 points, running from a low of 1280.0 (StanChart) to Citi's 1460.0 — an unusually wide range for a pair trading near the consensus midpoint.
Is the broader consensus bullish or bearish on the Korean won?
The implied consensus bias is neutral at the median, but the majority of the 14 most recently updated desks carry a bearish USD/KRW stance — meaning most expect the won to strengthen modestly against the dollar by December 2026.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the rationale behind the most USD/KRW-bullish call in the 18-firm panel.
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