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USD/KRW traded at 1371.5 as of August 29, 2026 — roughly 0.62% below the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, according to the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Across 18 desks, the dispersion between the highest and lowest year-end target spans 180 points, reflecting sharply divergent reads on the BoK-Fed rate differential, the semiconductor export cycle, and Korea's China beta.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 29, 2026): 1371.5
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min, 18 firms): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.62% (spot trades below)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade below the consensus median?
The 0.62% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median is narrow in absolute terms but directionally meaningful: the tape has moved ahead of the consensus, pricing in KRW strength that most desks expect only by year-end. The dominant narrative across the bearish majority is a narrowing BoK-Fed rate differential. The Federal Reserve's easing trajectory — still the central assumption across most sell-side rate desks — compresses the yield advantage that has anchored dollar demand against the won. The BoK, meanwhile, has limited room to ease aggressively given residual domestic inflation and household debt sensitivity, which keeps the differential compression asymmetric in KRW's favour.
Semiconductor export data reinforces this. Korea's tech export cycle, heavily driven by DRAM and NAND shipments from Samsung and SK Hynix, has historically been one of the cleaner leading indicators for KRW direction. A sustained upcycle in memory pricing — supported by AI server demand — generates current account surpluses that mechanically bid the won. Desks with the most aggressive KRW-bullish targets, including Deutsche Bank at 1350 and UBS at 1300, appear to embed a scenario where this export tailwind persists through Q4 without a material China demand shock.
Where is the dispersion widest, and what regime does each camp price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-29 06:07 UTC
At 180 points, the spread between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is unusually wide for a G20 EM currency pair at a four-month horizon. The dispersion reflects three distinct regime assumptions rather than a simple bull-bear split.
The bearish USD/KRW cluster — thirteen of the fourteen desks shown — prices a soft-landing Fed easing cycle, a durable semiconductor upcycle, and stable China demand. Within this cluster, the spread between UBS at 1300 and J.P. Morgan at 1440 still spans 140 points, suggesting meaningful disagreement on the magnitude of KRW appreciation even among those directionally aligned. J.P. Morgan's 1440 target — bearish on USD/KRW in stance but well above spot — implies the desk sees limited near-term won appreciation, possibly embedding a China slowdown drag or a more cautious BoK easing timeline.
ING at 1425 with a neutral stance occupies a middle ground: the desk does not commit to directional conviction, likely reflecting uncertainty around China's property sector and its knock-on effect on Korean exports. Korea's China beta remains a live risk — roughly 25% of Korean exports flow to China, and any deterioration in Chinese industrial demand would weigh disproportionately on KRW relative to other Asian currencies.
Citi at 1460 is the lone bullish outlier. A target 89 points above spot and 80 points above the next-highest desk implies the desk prices a materially different macro regime: either a Fed pause or reversal, a China demand shock severe enough to widen Korea's current account deficit, or a domestic political risk premium re-emerging. Without fresh Citi commentary in the current news window, the precise channel is inferred from the target level alone.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate as of August 29, 2026?
Spot USD/KRW was 1371.5 on August 29, 2026, approximately 0.62% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast for end-2026?
Citi holds the top target at 1460, the only desk with an outright bullish stance on USD/KRW among the 14 most recently updated firms.
Which bank is most bearish on USD/KRW — i.e. most bullish on the won?
StanChart carries the lowest Dec-26 target at 1280 across all 18 firms in the consensus, implying the sharpest KRW appreciation from current spot.
How wide is the disagreement across bank forecasts?
Dispersion across the full 18-firm panel is 180 points (max minus min), an unusually wide spread that reflects divergent assumptions on the Fed easing path, semiconductor cycle durability, and China demand.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the rationale behind the most bullish USD/KRW call in the current consensus panel.
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