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Spot USD/KRW prints 1367.65 as of August 31, 2026 — 0.89% below the 18-firm cross-desk median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive desks on the won.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 1367.65
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Gap vs spot: −0.89% (spot trades below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
Firm Forecasts
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| RBC Capital Markets | 1430.0 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does Spot Trade Below the Dec-26 Consensus?
The 0.89% gap between spot and median target is narrow in isolation, but the distribution beneath it is not. Thirteen of the 14 desks with published targets sit in bearish territory on USD/KRW — meaning they expect the pair to fall further from current levels by year-end. The median of 1380 therefore reflects a mild upside bias in the aggregate, but the weight of individual calls points lower.
Three structural arguments dominate the bearish camp. First, the BoK-Fed policy gap has compressed materially: the Fed's rate path through H2 2026 prices incremental easing, while the BoK has moved cautiously, keeping the differential less punishing for the won than it was in 2023–24. Second, Korea's semiconductor export cycle has recovered with enough conviction to rebuild the current account surplus, providing a structural bid for KRW that was absent during the 2022–23 downturn. Third, China beta — historically a headwind for the won when PBoC stimulus disappoints — has been a more neutral factor in 2026 as Beijing's property stabilisation measures have at least arrested the deflationary impulse, even if they have not reversed it. Desks at Deutsche Bank (1350) and UBS (1300) sit at the aggressive end of this thesis, implying meaningful won appreciation from spot.
Where Is Dispersion Widest — and What Regime Does Each Camp Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-31 11:08 UTC
The 180-point spread between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is the defining feature of this consensus. That range is not noise; it maps onto two fundamentally different macro regimes.
Citi at 1460 is the lone bullish outlier. The desk prices a scenario in which US exceptionalism reasserts — Fed cuts prove shallower than the strip implies, dollar funding demand stays elevated, and Korea's China exposure re-emerges as a drag if Beijing's stimulus underwhelms. At 1460, Citi is pricing roughly 6.8% USD/KRW upside from current spot, a call that requires a material reversal of the semiconductor tailwind and a renewed terms-of-trade shock.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 and RBC Capital Markets at 1430 occupy the upper tier of the bearish camp — a seeming contradiction given their stance labels, but their targets still represent USD/KRW upside from spot. Both desks appear to price a softer won recovery than peers, acknowledging that BoK caution and residual China uncertainty limit the pace of KRW appreciation even if the direction is lower for USD/KRW over a longer horizon.
The lower cluster — Morgan Stanley at 1360, Deutsche Bank at 1350, HSBC at 1320, and UBS at 1300 — prices an accelerated convergence scenario: Fed cuts materialise on schedule, Korea's tech export surplus widens, and China stabilisation removes the tail risk that kept offshore accounts underweight KRW. UBS at 1300 is the most aggressive expression of this view, implying a 4.9% decline in USD/KRW from spot.
What Are the Key Macro Drivers to Watch Through Year-End?
Three variables carry the most weight for resolving the dispersion before December.
BoK vs Fed path. The rate differential remains the primary anchor. Any Fed communication that pushes back against the easing timeline — whether through stronger US labour data or sticky core services inflation — would provide the most direct support for Citi's outlier call. Conversely, a BoK hold while the Fed cuts would compress the differential and validate the bearish consensus.
Semiconductor export momentum. Korea's trade data is a high-frequency proxy for the health of the global memory and logic cycle. Samsung and SK Hynix order books through Q3 2026 will either confirm or challenge the current account surplus thesis underpinning the bearish USD/KRW camp. A deterioration in DRAM pricing would shift the balance toward the upper end of the target distribution.
China beta. The won's correlation with CNH and Chinese risk assets remains structurally positive. A renewed PBoC easing impulse that lifts Chinese domestic demand — and by extension Korean intermediate goods exports — would be a meaningful catalyst for KRW strength. The absence of fresh news on this front this week leaves the China variable unresolved.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of August 31, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1367.65.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by December 2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 firms is 1380.0, implying the pair trades 0.89% below the consensus level at current spot.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target and which has the lowest?
Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0; StanChart holds the lowest at 1280.0, producing a 180-point dispersion across the 18-firm panel.
How many banks are bearish on USD/KRW?
Of the 14 desks with published targets in the current table, 13 carry a bearish stance on USD/KRW, with one neutral (ING at 1425) and one bullish (Citi at 1460).
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the most bullish USD/KRW call in the current 18-firm consensus.
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