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Spot USD/KRW trades at 1374.02 as of September 1, 2026, effectively in line with the 18-firm cross-bank consensus Dec-26 target of 1380.0 — a gap of just −0.43% — though the range underneath that median spans 180 points from 1280 to 1460, reflecting sharply divergent reads on the BoK/Fed rate path, the semiconductor export cycle, and Korea's China beta.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 1374.02
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap vs spot: −0.43% (spot trades marginally below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0
Where Do the 18 Banks Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does a Near-Flat Gap Coexist With 180 Points of Dispersion?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-01 11:07 UTC
The −0.43% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median is arithmetically tidy but analytically misleading. The distribution is not clustered — it is bimodal. Thirteen of the 14 named desks carry a bearish USD/KRW stance, targeting a range of 1280–1407, yet two outliers — J.P. Morgan at 1440 and Citi at 1460 — pull the median upward enough to park it almost exactly at spot. The median, in this case, is a statistical artifact of a skewed distribution rather than a genuine central tendency.
The bearish majority on USD/KRW rests on three shared assumptions: the Fed easing cycle runs further and faster than the BoK can match, chip-cycle revenues continue to lift Korea's current account into surplus, and the won's undervaluation relative to purchasing-power models corrects gradually. StanChart is the most aggressive expression of this view at 1280, implying roughly a 7% KRW rally from current levels. UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 occupy the next tier, both pricing a sustained dollar retreat as the primary driver.
Which Macro Regimes Separate the Outliers From the Consensus?
The fault line is China beta. Korea's export engine — semiconductors, petrochemicals, machinery — is structurally exposed to Chinese end-demand. Desks that price a continued Chinese demand shortfall or a renewed CNY depreciation episode tend to hold USD/KRW higher for longer, because KRW historically tracks CNY weakness with a beta above 0.5 in stress periods.
Citi's 1460 target, the sole bullish USD/KRW call in the named set, appears to embed a scenario where China's property-sector drag persists through year-end, suppressing Korean export volumes and keeping the BoK cautious on rate cuts even as the Fed moves. That combination — a Fed that eases while the BoK holds — compresses the rate differential in the won's favour less than the consensus assumes, leaving USD/KRW elevated.
J.P. Morgan's 1440 sits in a similar neighbourhood, though the desk frames its view more around domestic political risk and the pace of BoK normalization than on China specifically. Both desks effectively price a regime where the semiconductor upcycle is real but insufficient to offset macro headwinds — a narrower current-account surplus than the bearish camp models.
The bearish cluster — Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, and MUFG all at or near 1380 — represents the modal view: modest KRW appreciation, a Fed that cuts 75–100 bps through year-end, and a chip export cycle that sustains Korea's trade surplus without requiring a China recovery. That is the regime the median prices.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate and where is consensus pointing?
Spot USD/KRW is 1374.02 as of September 1, 2026. The 18-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target is 1380.0, placing spot just 0.43% below that level — effectively in line with consensus.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters?
Dispersion across the 18 firms is 180 points, running from StanChart's 1280 floor to Citi's 1460 ceiling. That range is unusually wide for a G20 currency pair at this point in the forecast horizon and reflects genuine regime disagreement, not model noise.
Which bank is most bullish on USD/KRW and which is most bearish?
Citi holds the highest USD/KRW target at 1460, implying the won weakens from current levels. StanChart sits at the opposite end with a 1280 target, pricing a material KRW rally of roughly 7% from spot.
What does the implied consensus bias signal?
The consensus bias is neutral — spot and the Dec-26 median are separated by less than half a percent. That neutrality is a product of averaging a large bearish majority against two high-end outliers; it does not indicate that most desks expect the pair to stay flat.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the desk's detailed USD/KRW regime assumptions and year-end target rationale.
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