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USD/KRW spot sits at 1358.66 as of the week of September 2, 2026 — 1.55% below the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, with an unusually wide 180-point dispersion across the 18 desks tracked in the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. The implied consensus bias is bullish on the won, though one outlier desk sits firmly in the opposite camp.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 2, 2026): 1358.66
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Gap vs spot: −1.55% (spot well below consensus)
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Most bearish on KRW (highest USD/KRW target): Citi at 1460.0
- Most bullish on KRW (lowest USD/KRW target): StanChart at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| BofA | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade below the Dec-26 consensus median?
Spot at 1358.66 is running ahead of the won-bullish thesis embedded in most bank targets — not against it. The median Dec-26 target of 1380 implies the pair still has modest upside from here, meaning the consensus expects some KRW softening before year-end rather than further won strength. The current level reflects a combination of factors pulling in the won's favour: the Bank of Korea has maintained a cautious easing posture relative to the Fed, which has moved more aggressively to cut rates through mid-2026, compressing the rate differential that had previously weighed on KRW. Semiconductor exports — the single largest driver of Korea's current account — have held up through the summer cycle, with memory pricing remaining firm enough to sustain a positive trade impulse. China beta, historically a headwind for the won when CNY weakens, has been relatively contained; the yuan has stabilised against the dollar, removing a key source of contagion that amplified KRW volatility in prior cycles. The net result is a pair that has overshot the won-bullish consensus, leaving spot below where most desks expected it to be at this point in the year.
Which desks are the outliers, and what regime does each price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-02 16:08 UTC
The 180-point dispersion between Citi at 1460 and StanChart at 1280 is the widest spread in the consensus panel and reflects genuinely different macro regimes rather than model noise. Citi's 1460 target — the only explicitly bullish USD/KRW call in the table — prices a scenario where the Fed's easing cycle stalls or reverses, the semiconductor upcycle fades into Q4, and China's slowdown re-emerges as a drag on Korean export volumes. That combination would rebuild the rate differential in the dollar's favour and undermine the current account support that has anchored KRW. At the other end, StanChart at 1280 and UBS at 1300 price a sustained Fed cutting cycle, continued tech export strength, and a benign China backdrop — conditions under which the BoK can hold rates steady or ease only modestly without triggering capital outflows. The bulk of the panel clusters between 1350 and 1410, a range that implies limited net movement from current spot and reflects broad uncertainty about the pace of Fed normalisation into year-end. J.P. Morgan at 1440 occupies the second-highest position despite a bearish stance label — a reminder that stance here reflects the direction of travel from the desk's prior position, not necessarily a won-positive view in absolute terms. ING at 1425 is the only neutral-labelled desk, consistent with a view that the BoK-Fed differential and China risk roughly offset the export tailwind.
What are the structural drivers to watch through December 2026?
Three variables will determine whether spot converges toward the 1380 median or breaks toward the tails. First, the Fed path: any signal of a pause or re-acceleration in US rates would rapidly reprice the dollar side of the pair, and Citi's 1460 scenario becomes materially more probable if September or October data force a hawkish reassessment. Second, semiconductor pricing: Korea's export data is a near-real-time proxy for global tech demand, and any deterioration in DRAM or NAND contract prices would hit the current account and erode one of KRW's primary supports. Third, China beta: CNY stability has been a quiet gift to KRW in 2026; a renewed depreciation push from Beijing — whether policy-driven or market-led — would transmit quickly into won weakness, as it has in every prior episode of significant yuan softening. The BoK's reaction function matters here too: if the won weakens sharply, the central bank has historically intervened to smooth volatility, but its capacity and willingness to do so depend on reserve levels and the political economy of export competitiveness.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate as of September 2, 2026?
USD/KRW spot is 1358.66 as of the week of September 2, 2026, placing it 1.55% below the 18-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW at end-2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 18 desks is 1380.0, implying modest won softening from current spot levels.
How wide is the dispersion among bank forecasts for USD/KRW?
Dispersion is 180 points, spanning Citi's 1460 high and StanChart's 1280 low — one of the wider spreads in the EM FX consensus panel.
Which bank is most bearish on the Korean won?
Citi carries the highest USD/KRW target at 1460, the only explicitly bullish USD/KRW call in the 18-firm panel, pricing a scenario of renewed dollar strength and fading semiconductor support.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 Dec-26 USD/KRW target and how it sits relative to the broader FX bank forecast consensus.
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