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USD/KRW trades at 1358.46 as of the week of September 3, 2026 — roughly 21 figures below the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, with the full USD/KRW bank forecast table showing a 180-point spread between the most aggressive bull and bear desks across 18 contributing firms.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 3, 2026): 1358.46
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 18 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap vs consensus: −1.56% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| BofA | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW spot trade below the consensus target?
The 1.56% gap between spot and the Dec-26 median reflects a market that has already priced a meaningful portion of the KRW-supportive macro narrative the consensus expects to play out over the remainder of the year. Three forces are doing most of the work.
First, the Bank of Korea–Fed policy divergence has narrowed materially. The Fed's cumulative easing since late 2025 has compressed the rate differential that kept KRW under pressure through much of that year, and the BoK has held rates steady long enough to signal it is in no rush to follow. That relative hawkishness — even if modest — provides a carry floor for KRW that was absent twelve months ago.
Second, the semiconductor export cycle has turned. Samsung and SK Hynix shipment data through mid-2026 points to a recovery in high-bandwidth memory demand, driven by AI infrastructure build-out in the US and, to a lesser extent, Europe. Korea's current account surplus has widened as a result, generating structural USD selling by exporters that has kept spot capped. The current account dynamic is the single most reliable anchor for KRW in a risk-on environment, and the tape reflects it.
Third, China beta has been a net positive for KRW in recent months. Stabilisation in Chinese industrial activity — even if uneven — has reduced the tail risk that Korean exports to China would deteriorate sharply. KRW is one of the highest-beta proxies for Chinese growth among the major Asian currencies, and any improvement in that signal tends to attract positioning that pushes USD/KRW lower.
Taken together, these factors explain why spot has run ahead of where the median desk expected it to be at this point in the year.
Which banks are the outliers, and what regime does each price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +14 more
18 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-03 11:06 UTC
With 180 points separating the top and bottom targets, the dispersion across 18 firms is wide enough to reflect genuine disagreement about the macro regime — not just model noise.
Citi is the sole explicitly bullish desk on USD/KRW, with a 1460 target that stands 102 points above the next-highest contributor. The Citi view prices a scenario in which the Fed easing cycle stalls — perhaps because US inflation proves stickier than the consensus assumes — while China's recovery disappoints, removing the two main supports for KRW. At 1460, Citi is effectively pricing a return to the stress levels seen during the 2025 KRW selloff.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 is the second-highest target and carries a bearish stance on USD/KRW — meaning JPM expects the pair to fall from current spot but still sees year-end above 1440. That apparent tension resolves when you note that JPM's published spot reference at the time of their last update was materially higher than today's 1358.46; the desk is bearish on USD/KRW from that higher reference, not from current levels.
At the other end, StanChart at 1280 and UBS at 1300 price the most constructive KRW outcomes. Both desks lean on a combination of sustained semiconductor export strength, a softer Fed terminal rate, and a more durable Chinese recovery than the median assumes. HSBC at 1320 sits in the same camp. These three targets imply KRW appreciation of 5–9% from current spot — a meaningful move that would require the supportive factors already in train to intensify rather than merely persist.
The cluster of desks between 1350 and 1410 — including Morgan Stanley, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, and MUFG — represents the modal view: KRW grinds modestly stronger or oscillates near current levels, with no sharp directional break in either direction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
USD/KRW spot was 1358.46 as of the week of September 3, 2026, placing it roughly 21 figures below the 18-firm cross-bank consensus Dec-26 median of 1380.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The median Dec-26 target across 18 contributing firms is 1380.0, implying the pair has approximately 1.56% of upside to consensus from current spot levels — a gap that reflects how much KRW strength has already been delivered.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target?
Citi holds the highest published target at 1460, the only explicitly bullish stance in the 18-firm panel, pricing a scenario of Fed policy resilience and China underperformance.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion between the highest target (Citi at 1460) and the lowest (StanChart at 1280) is 180 points — a range wide enough to span two distinct macro regimes and making USD/KRW one of the more contested pairs in the current consensus.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the most bullish USD/KRW scenario currently published across the 18-firm panel.
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