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Spot USD/KRW trades at 1345.48 as of the week of September 10, 2026 — roughly 2.5% below the 17-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 1380.0, with a max-to-min dispersion of 180 points that reflects genuine disagreement over the BoK/Fed rate path, the semiconductor export cycle, and Korea's China beta.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 10, 2026): 1345.48
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median: 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.50% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade below the Dec-26 consensus median?
The 2.5% gap between spot and the 1380.0 median reflects a market that has already priced a meaningful portion of the KRW-positive macro thesis. Three forces drove the won's outperformance into September. First, the Fed's easing cycle is sufficiently advanced that dollar funding costs have compressed, reducing the interest-rate penalty Korean corporates and financials face when holding domestic assets. Second, semiconductor export data through mid-2026 has been strong enough to sustain current-account surpluses that mechanically support KRW. Third, China's domestic demand recovery — uneven as it remains — has kept Korean intermediate-goods shipments above the levels that would trigger the kind of risk-off positioning that pushed USD/KRW above 1400 in prior stress episodes.
The BoK's own posture matters here. The central bank has been cautious about cutting rates too aggressively relative to the Fed, partly to limit capital outflow pressure and partly because domestic household debt dynamics constrain how far it can ease. That relative restraint has compressed the USD/KRW rate differential in Korea's favour more than many desks anticipated at the start of the year, pulling spot below where the median target was set.
Which banks are the outliers, and what regime does each price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-10 16:07 UTC
The 180-point dispersion — from StanChart at 1280.0 to Citi at 1460.0 — is wide enough to represent two distinct macro regimes, not just forecast uncertainty around a shared base case.
StanChart at 1280.0 is the most aggressive KRW bull in the panel. That target implies the pair falls a further 4.9% from current spot, pricing a scenario where Fed cuts accelerate, the semiconductor upcycle sustains robust Korean current-account surpluses, and China's recovery provides a meaningful demand tailwind. UBS at 1300.0 sits in the same camp, requiring a further 3.4% KRW appreciation from here.
Citi at 1460.0 is the sole bullish USD/KRW call in the table — the only desk pricing a higher pair by year-end. The Citi target implies an 8.5% reversal from current spot, a scenario consistent with a Fed pause or re-acceleration, a deterioration in Korean export momentum, or a China shock that triggers the kind of risk-off EM selling that disproportionately hits high-beta currencies like the won. J.P. Morgan at 1440.0 is the second-highest target and carries a bearish USD/KRW stance — meaning JPM expects the pair to fall from its internal spot reference toward 1440.0, still well above current levels, pricing a slower and more contested KRW recovery.
ING at 1425.0 is the sole neutral, reflecting a desk that sees limited directional conviction: the pair may drift higher from spot but not decisively so, with two-way risks roughly balanced between the China beta upside and residual dollar demand.
The cluster between 1350.0 and 1385.0 — Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, MUFG, Nomura, and Bank of America — represents the consensus core. These desks share a view that USD/KRW drifts modestly higher from spot through year-end, consistent with a gradual Fed easing path that supports the dollar enough to prevent a sharp KRW rally, but not enough to reprice the pair materially above 1380–1385.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate as of September 10, 2026?
Spot USD/KRW is 1345.48 as of the week of September 10, 2026, placing it 2.5% below the 17-firm cross-bank Dec-26 median target of 1380.0.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target for end-2026?
Citi holds the highest Dec-26 target in the panel at 1460.0, the only desk with an outright bullish USD/KRW stance — implying the pair rises roughly 8.5% from current spot by year-end.
Which bank is most bearish on USD/KRW?
StanChart carries the lowest Dec-26 target at 1280.0, implying a further 4.9% decline in USD/KRW from spot — the most aggressive KRW appreciation call across the 17-firm panel.
How wide is the disagreement across banks on USD/KRW?
Dispersion across the 17 firms stands at 180.0 points (max minus min), a spread wide enough to reflect two structurally different macro regimes rather than a shared base case with normal forecast variance.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's highest USD/KRW target.
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