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As of September 11, 2026, spot USD/KRW trades at 1340.88 — 2.83% below the 17-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 1380, with a 180-point spread between the most and least constructive desks on the dollar. The full USD/KRW bank forecast table captures every revision in real time.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 11, 2026): 1340.88
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median: 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −2.83% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0
Firm-by-Firm Targets, December 2026
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does Spot Trade Below the Consensus Target?
The 2.83% gap between spot (1340.88) and the Dec-26 median (1380) reflects a market that has run ahead of the base-case BoK–Fed policy path priced by most desks. The dominant consensus narrative through mid-2026 held that the Fed would maintain restrictive rates longer than the Bank of Korea, sustaining a rate differential that kept USD/KRW elevated. Spot's drift below 1350 suggests either that differential has compressed faster than modelled, or that semiconductor export revenues — Korea's primary current-account driver — have surprised to the upside, generating structural won demand that overwhelmed the rate-differential headwind.
China beta compounds the picture. Korea's export basket carries one of the highest sensitivities to Chinese industrial demand in the G20 universe. Any stabilisation in Chinese property and manufacturing activity feeds through to Korean chip and intermediate-goods shipments within one to two quarters, supporting the current account and, by extension, the won. The majority of the 17-firm panel appears to have underestimated this channel when setting year-end targets earlier in 2026, leaving consensus mechanically above spot.
The BoK's own posture matters at the margin. With inflation returning toward target and growth risks skewed to the downside via China exposure, the BoK has room to ease — a move that would ordinarily weaken the won. That the won has strengthened despite this optionality suggests the market is discounting a Fed pivot more aggressively than it is pricing BoK cuts, keeping the net rate-differential move won-positive.
Where Is Dispersion Widest, and What Regime Does Each Camp Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-11 11:07 UTC
At 180 points, the max-to-min spread is unusually wide for a G10-adjacent pair and signals genuine regime disagreement rather than mere model variation.
Citi anchors the bullish dollar end at 1460 — a level that implies a meaningful reversal from current spot. The Citi thesis prices a scenario in which the Fed holds rates higher for longer than the market now expects, China's recovery stalls and reduces Korean export income, and BoK easing accelerates to offset domestic growth weakness. Under that combination, the won gives back its 2026 gains and USD/KRW retraces toward the upper band of its post-pandemic range.
StanChart sits at the opposite pole with a 1280 target — implying further won appreciation of roughly 4.5% from current spot. That view prices an accelerated Fed cutting cycle, a durable semiconductor upcycle that keeps Korea's trade surplus wide, and limited BoK easing given still-positive growth momentum. UBS at 1300 and HSBC at 1320 cluster near StanChart, forming a bearish-dollar cohort that collectively prices the most benign external environment for Korea.
The central cluster — Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank both at 1380, MUFG at 1385 — prices a soft landing in which the Fed eases gradually, the semiconductor cycle holds but does not accelerate materially, and BoK cuts are shallow. This is the median outcome, and it sits 2.83% above spot, suggesting the market has already moved through the consensus base case.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 and ING at 1425 occupy the upper middle of the distribution. JPM's bearish-KRW stance — despite a target below Citi — reflects a view that current spot is too strong given residual Fed restrictiveness and China demand uncertainty; the desk sees mean reversion but not a full dollar breakout. ING's neutral stance at 1425 is notable: it prices a wide range of outcomes rather than a directional conviction, consistent with the pair's sensitivity to two independently uncertain variables — Fed timing and Chinese growth.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
As of September 11, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1340.88.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The 17-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target is 1380.0, representing a 2.83% premium to current spot — implying the consensus still expects some dollar recovery from current levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast?
Citi carries the highest Dec-26 target in the panel at 1460, pricing a scenario of sustained Fed restrictiveness and won weakness driven by BoK easing and softer Chinese demand.
Which bank is most bearish on USD/KRW?
StanChart holds the lowest target at 1280, implying further won strength of roughly 4.5% from current spot on the back of a faster Fed pivot and durable Korean export momentum.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's most dollar-bullish USD/KRW call.
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