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Spot USD/KRW trades at 1345.96 as of the week of September 14, 2026 — 2.47% below the 17-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 1380, with dispersion across the panel spanning 180 points from floor to ceiling. The implied consensus bias is bullish on USD/KRW, though the distribution of targets is far from uniform.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 14, 2026): 1345.96
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap vs spot: −2.47% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: Standard Chartered at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| HSBC | 1320.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade below the Dec-26 consensus?
The 2.47% gap between spot and the median target reflects a market that has run ahead of the rate-differential story. The dominant variable is the BoK-Fed policy path. With the Federal Reserve still in a measured easing cycle and the Bank of Korea having moved earlier and more aggressively on cuts, the short-rate spread has compressed faster than most desks anticipated when they set year-end targets. That compression has pulled USD/KRW lower, leaving spot well below the 1380 median.
The semiconductor and tech export cycle adds a second channel. Korean export data through mid-2026 has reflected a sustained recovery in global memory demand — DRAM and NAND pricing has held firmer than the consensus expected entering the year, generating stronger-than-forecast current account surpluses. Those surpluses create structural KRW buying pressure that is difficult to offset through intervention alone, and the BoK has shown limited appetite for heavy FX smoothing operations in this environment.
China beta is the third leg. KRW has historically carried a high sensitivity to Chinese activity data and CNY direction. A stabilisation in CNY — rather than the further depreciation that several desks had pencilled in — has removed a key source of KRW weakness. Desks that built bearish KRW assumptions on a deteriorating China growth impulse have seen that thesis underperform.
Where is dispersion widest, and which regimes does it price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-14 11:07 UTC
At 180 points, the max-to-min spread across the 17-firm panel is unusually wide for a G20 EM pair at a three-month horizon. Citi sits alone at the top with a 1460 target — the only explicitly bullish USD/KRW call in the visible panel. That view prices a regime where Fed easing stalls, Korean export momentum fades into Q4, and China-related risk aversion reasserts. At 1460, Citi implies an 8.5% move higher from current spot, a call that requires a material reversal of the trends that have driven the pair lower through 2026.
At the other end, Standard Chartered targets 1280 — a further 4.9% KRW appreciation from spot — pricing an accelerated BoK-Fed convergence and a sustained tech export tailwind. UBS is close behind at 1300, also bearish on USD/KRW, reflecting a view that the dollar's broad weakness extends into year-end.
The cluster of desks between 1360 and 1385 — Morgan Stanley at 1360, Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank at 1380, MUFG at 1385 — represents the modal view: modest USD/KRW recovery from current levels, consistent with a soft-landing scenario where the Fed pauses and Korean data holds. ING at 1425 takes a neutral stance, the only desk in the visible panel not expressing a directional conviction, suggesting range-bound conditions through Q4 rather than a trend.
Dispersion is widest in the 1280–1320 zone and the 1440–1460 zone — the tails where regime bets are most explicit. The middle of the distribution is relatively compressed, which typically indicates that the central scenario is well-understood but the tail risks are genuinely contested.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of September 14, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1345.96.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The cross-firm median Dec-26 target across 17 banks is 1380.0, implying USD/KRW approximately 2.47% above current spot levels.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW forecast?
Citi holds the most bullish USD/KRW view at 1460.0 for Dec-26, the only explicitly bullish stance in the visible panel.
Which bank has the lowest USD/KRW forecast?
Standard Chartered carries the most bearish USD/KRW target at 1280.0, pricing continued KRW strength through year-end on BoK-Fed convergence and export resilience.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 Dec-26 target and how it compares to the broader panel on the full USD/KRW bank forecast table.
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