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USD/KRW trades at 1367.62 as of the week of September 16, 2026 — roughly 0.90% below the cross-firm median Dec-26 target of 1380, according to the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. Seventeen desks are in the consensus, and the gap between the most and least constructive on the won spans 180 points, a spread wide enough to price materially different macro regimes.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 1367.62
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 17 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.90% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — Standard Chartered: 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade below the consensus median?
The 0.90% gap between spot and the 1380 median is not noise. It reflects a market that has front-run won appreciation more aggressively than the consensus pencilled in. The dominant driver is the rate-differential trajectory: the Bank of Korea has moved cautiously on easing relative to the pace many desks assumed when they set year-end targets, while the Fed's own path has shifted enough to compress the rate gap less dramatically than feared. That compression, even if modest, is sufficient to support the won at current levels.
Semiconductor export momentum is the second leg. Korean chip and memory shipments have remained firm through mid-year, sustaining a current-account surplus that provides a structural bid for the won. Desks that anchored their targets to a softer tech cycle — a reasonable assumption earlier in the year — find their levels now look stretched relative to the data. The won's resilience against a backdrop of still-elevated global uncertainty suggests the market is pricing a more durable export recovery than the median target implies.
China beta complicates the picture. The KRW retains a well-documented sensitivity to Chinese growth impulses and CNY direction. A stabilisation in Chinese domestic demand — even partial — reduces the tail risk that had kept risk-adjusted KRW shorts attractive. Desks with the most bearish KRW targets (highest USD/KRW levels) tend to embed a more pessimistic China scenario; those with the most constructive won views assume a smoother Chinese recovery feeds through to Korean export volumes.
Where is dispersion widest, and what does it reveal about the regime debate?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-16 16:02 UTC
The 180-point spread between Citi at 1460 and Standard Chartered at 1280 is unusually wide for a G20 EM pair at this stage of the year. It is not a rounding disagreement — it reflects genuinely different macro regimes being priced.
Citi's 1460 target, the lone bullish USD/KRW stance in the table, prices a scenario where dollar resilience persists, BoK easing accelerates faster than the Fed, and China-linked risk aversion keeps regional EM currencies offered. That is a coherent view, but it requires spot to move roughly 7% from current levels in under four months — a significant ask absent a discrete shock.
At the other end, Standard Chartered's 1280 target implies a 6.4% won rally from spot. That requires a Fed pivot that materially outpaces BoK easing, a sustained semiconductor upcycle, and benign China conditions — all simultaneously. UBS at 1300 is directionally aligned, pricing roughly 4.9% won appreciation.
The cluster of desks between 1370 and 1385 — BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, Commerzbank, and MUFG — represents the consensus gravity. These desks price a moderate won recovery consistent with a gradual Fed-BoK convergence and steady but unspectacular export data. J.P. Morgan at 1440 and Société Générale at 1407 sit in the upper band, implying the won gives back some recent gains before year-end — a view that would require either a China disappointment or a BoK that cuts more aggressively than the market currently prices.
ING is the sole neutral stance at 1425, a positioning that reflects genuine uncertainty about the pace of BoK normalisation rather than a directional conviction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate and where do banks expect it to end 2026?
Spot USD/KRW stands at 1367.62 as of the week of September 16, 2026. The 17-firm median Dec-26 target is 1380.0, implying modest won depreciation from current levels if consensus proves correct.
How wide is the disagreement among bank forecasters on USD/KRW?
Dispersion across the 17-firm panel is 180 points — Citi holds the highest target at 1460.0 while Standard Chartered holds the lowest at 1280.0. That range reflects fundamentally different assumptions about the BoK-Fed rate path, semiconductor cycle durability, and China growth.
Is the consensus bullish or bearish on the Korean won right now?
The implied consensus bias is bullish on the won (bearish USD/KRW): 12 of the 14 firms with published stances are bearish on the pair, meaning they expect the won to strengthen. Only Citi carries a bullish USD/KRW stance; ING is neutral.
How far is spot from the consensus target?
Spot at 1367.62 is 0.90% below the median Dec-26 consensus of 1380.0 — meaning the market has already moved in the direction most desks anticipated, leaving limited room for further won appreciation if consensus is the correct anchor.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the most bullish USD/KRW case in the current consensus panel.
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