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USD/KRW spot sits at 1388.19 as of the week of September 18, 2026 — a mere 0.59% above the 17-firm cross-consensus Dec-26 median of 1380, yet that tight gap masks a 180-point dispersion that reflects sharply divergent views on Fed-BoK policy sequencing and China demand; see the full USD/KRW bank forecast table for the complete picture.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 18, 2026): 1388.19
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 17 firms): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.59% (spot well above median)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW — Citi: 1460.0 (pair rises from spot)
- Most bearish on USD/KRW — StanChart: 1280.0 (pair falls ~7.8% from spot)
Where Does the 17-Firm Panel Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why Does USD/KRW Trade Above Consensus Despite a Bearish Panel?
Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published stances are bearish on the pair — meaning they expect the won to appreciate against the dollar by year-end. The aggregate signal is unambiguous: the panel prices a Fed easing cycle that outpaces any BoK rate relief, compressing the rate differential that has kept the won under pressure through much of 2025–26. Yet spot at 1388.19 remains above the 1380 median, a gap of roughly 8 points. That residual premium reflects the market's reluctance to price the full easing path before the Fed delivers, combined with lingering risk aversion tied to China's uneven demand recovery — a key driver for Korean semiconductor and petrochemical exporters.
The BoK has moved cautiously, wary of amplifying won weakness through premature cuts that could widen the differential further. The consensus view is that once the Fed signals a sustained cutting trajectory — likely through Q4 2026 — the BoK gains room to ease without currency cost, and the won recovers toward the 1350–1380 band where the bulk of the panel clusters. Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas both anchor at 1380, treating it as a natural equilibrium once the differential normalises. MUFG sits just above at 1385, pricing a marginally slower BoK response.
Which Firms Are the Outliers and What Regime Do They Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-18 16:02 UTC
The dispersion of 180 points — from StanChart at 1280 to Citi at 1460 — is the widest in the panel and reflects two incompatible macro regimes.
StanChart at 1280 prices an aggressive Fed easing cycle coinciding with a semiconductor upcycle that drives Korean export revenues sharply higher. On that view, the current account surplus widens, repatriation flows accelerate, and the won closes roughly 7.8% of ground against the dollar from current spot. It is the most constructive won call in the panel by a meaningful margin — UBS at 1300 is the next closest, still implying a ~6.3% won rally.
Citi at 1460 is the sole bullish USD/KRW call and prices the opposite regime: a Fed that moves less than markets expect, a BoK that cuts first to support domestic growth, and a China demand recovery that disappoints — leaving Korean exporters with weaker-than-priced order books and the won without a fundamental catalyst. The 1460 target sits roughly 5.2% above current spot, making it a meaningful outlier against a panel that is otherwise aligned on direction if not magnitude.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 and ING at 1425 (neutral) occupy the cautious middle ground — bearish on the pair in direction but pricing a much shallower won recovery than the consensus median implies. Both appear to weight the China beta risk more heavily, treating a full semiconductor export recovery as a 2027 story rather than a Q4 2026 catalyst.
The widest dispersion sits between StanChart and Citi, and that gap is essentially a bet on whether the Fed-BoK differential compresses on Fed cuts or widens on BoK cuts — two paths the data have not yet resolved.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW rate?
As of the week of September 18, 2026, USD/KRW spot is 1388.19.
What is the bank consensus forecast for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The 17-firm cross-consensus median Dec-26 target is 1380.0, approximately 0.59% below current spot — implying a modest won appreciation if the consensus proves correct.
How wide is the disagreement among banks on USD/KRW?
Dispersion across the 17-firm panel is 180 points, ranging from StanChart at 1280 to Citi at 1460 — the broadest spread in the current consensus, reflecting genuine regime uncertainty around the Fed-BoK path and China demand.
Which bank is most bullish on the Korean won?
StanChart carries the most won-constructive target at 1280, pricing a ~7.8% decline in USD/KRW from current spot by December 2026.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the contrarian USD/KRW bull case and how it frames Fed, BoK, and China risk into year-end.
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