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Spot USD/KRW trades at 1365.96 as of the week of September 23, 2026 — roughly 1% through the 17-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1380, with the spread between the most and least constructive desks running 180 points, an unusually wide band for a G20 EM pair.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Sep 23, 2026): 1365.96
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min): 180.0 points
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −1.02% (spot well below consensus)
- Most bullish on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most bearish on USD/KRW: Standard Chartered at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Where Does the BoK-Fed Divergence Leave USD/KRW by Year-End?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-23 21:06 UTC
The dominant framing across 12 of the 14 most recently updated desks is that the Fed's easing trajectory outpaces the Bank of Korea's, compressing the rate differential and creating a structural tailwind for KRW. That consensus — bearish USD/KRW — is reflected in the median Dec-26 target of 1380, which implies only a modest 1% move from current spot. The practical implication is that most desks are not calling for a dramatic re-rating; they are pricing a slow grind lower in the pair as the BoK maintains a cautious easing posture relative to a Fed that has already moved further into accommodation.
Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas both sit at the 1380 median, consistent with a view that rate differentials narrow but do not collapse. MUFG at 1385 is marginally more cautious on KRW appreciation, likely reflecting residual concern about the BoK's willingness to cut aggressively given domestic household debt constraints. Standard Chartered at 1280 sits 100 points through the median — a call that requires either a sharper-than-expected Fed pivot, a material improvement in Korea's current account surplus, or both.
How Much Does the Semiconductor Cycle and China Beta Explain the Dispersion?
The 180-point spread between Citi's 1460 and StanChart's 1280 is not primarily a BoK-Fed disagreement — it is a disagreement about the durability of Korea's export recovery and the trajectory of Chinese end-demand. Korea's semiconductor exports, dominated by DRAM and NAND from Samsung and SK Hynix, are a direct function of global AI infrastructure capex and Chinese smartphone and server demand. Desks with a constructive view on that cycle — and on China's ability to sustain its own recovery — tend to cluster toward the lower end of the target range, where KRW strength is supported by a widening trade surplus.
J.P. Morgan at 1440 and ING at 1425 (the only neutral stance in the table) represent the more cautious end of the non-Citi distribution. Both appear to price a scenario in which China's recovery remains uneven and semiconductor export growth moderates from its recent pace, limiting the current account support that has historically anchored KRW. Société Générale at 1407 occupies a similar middle ground — bearish on the pair but unwilling to chase the sub-1350 calls.
At the aggressive end, UBS at 1300 and Deutsche Bank at 1350 are pricing a combination of Fed cuts, a resilient chip cycle, and a China demand recovery that proves more durable than the consensus assumes. These are minority views, but they are internally consistent with a risk-on, dollar-softening macro backdrop.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and What Regime Do They Price?
Citi is the sole bullish desk at 1460 — the only firm in the 17-firm panel expecting USD/KRW to rise materially from current spot. That target implies a view that KRW depreciation pressure reasserts: either the BoK cuts more aggressively than the Fed, China beta disappoints, or geopolitical risk premium re-enters the won. Citi's stance is an outlier not just directionally but in magnitude — 80 points above the next highest target (JPM at 1440) and 100 points above the median.
Standard Chartered at 1280 is the mirror outlier. Reaching that level from 1365.96 requires roughly 6.3% KRW appreciation — a move that would put the pair at levels last seen before the 2022 dollar surge. StanChart's call is the most aggressive KRW bull in the panel and would require a confluence of favourable drivers: a weak dollar, strong semiconductor exports, and a BoK that holds rates while the Fed cuts.
Morgan Stanley at 1360 and Bank of America at 1370 are the most tightly clustered around spot, effectively pricing near-stasis — a view that the current level already discounts most of the macro information available.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of the week of September 23, 2026, USD/KRW trades at 1365.96.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW at year-end 2026?
The 17-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target is 1380.0, approximately 1.02% above current spot — a consensus that is mildly bullish on USD/KRW relative to where the pair trades today.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion across the full 17-firm panel runs 180 points, from Standard Chartered's 1280 floor to Citi's 1460 ceiling — an unusually wide band that reflects genuine disagreement on the semiconductor export cycle and China demand trajectory.
Which bank is most bullish and which is most bearish on USD/KRW?
Citi holds the highest Dec-26 target at 1460, implying KRW weakness from spot. Standard Chartered holds the lowest at 1280, implying roughly 6% KRW appreciation from current levels.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the panel's most bullish USD/KRW call.
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