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USD/KRW spot sits at 1364.83 as of October 1, 2026 — 1.10% below the 17-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target of 1380, per the full USD/KRW bank forecast table. The 180-point spread between the most- and least-bearish desks is the dominant feature of this consensus, reflecting genuine disagreement over the BoK-Fed rate path, the semiconductor export cycle, and Korea's China beta.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Oct 1, 2026): 1364.83
- Cross-firm consensus median (Dec-26): 1380.0
- Dispersion (max − min, 17 firms): 180.0 points
- Gap vs spot: −1.10% (spot trades well below consensus)
- Most-bullish firm on USD/KRW: Citi at 1460.0
- Most-bearish firm on USD/KRW: StanChart at 1280.0
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| StanChart | 1280.0 | bearish |
| UBS | 1300.0 | bearish |
| Deutsche Bank | 1350.0 | bearish |
| Morgan Stanley | 1360.0 | bearish |
| Bank of America | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Nomura | 1370.0 | bearish |
| Goldman Sachs | 1380.0 | bearish |
| BNP Paribas | 1380.0 | bearish |
| Commerzbank | 1380.0 | bearish |
| MUFG | 1385.0 | bearish |
| Société Générale | 1407.0 | bearish |
| ING | 1425.0 | neutral |
| J.P. Morgan | 1440.0 | bearish |
| Citi | 1460.0 | bullish |
Why does USD/KRW trade below the Dec-26 consensus?
The 1.10% gap between spot (1364.83) and the 1380 median is modest in isolation, but the directional skew matters more than the magnitude. Thirteen of the fourteen desks with published stances are bearish on USD/KRW — meaning they expect the pair to fall, i.e. KRW to strengthen — yet spot is already trading below the consensus midpoint. That compression reflects two converging forces.
First, the BoK-Fed differential has narrowed materially through 2026. The Federal Reserve's cumulative easing since late 2024 has eroded the yield advantage that kept USD/KRW elevated through most of 2024-25. The BoK, constrained by household debt dynamics and a still-fragile domestic demand backdrop, has moved more cautiously, but the gap has closed enough to remove the mechanical carry pressure that anchored the pair above 1400 for much of last year.
Second, the semiconductor export cycle has turned constructive. Korea's chip shipments — the single largest driver of the current account — have recovered alongside a global inventory restocking cycle. A strengthening current account provides a structural bid for KRW that is difficult to offset through positioning alone. Desks at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, both targeting sub-1380, lean heavily on this channel.
Where is dispersion widest, and what regime does each tail price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Standard Chartered · UBS · HSBC · Deutsche Bank +13 more
17 firms aggregated · as of 2026-10-01 16:03 UTC
At 180 points, the max-min spread is the most informative single statistic in this consensus. Citi sits alone at 1460 with a bullish USD/KRW stance — the only desk in the published set pricing a weaker KRW by year-end. The Citi view prices a regime in which Fed cuts stall or partially reverse, China demand disappoints and drags Korean exports lower, and domestic political uncertainty (a recurring KRW headwind) resurfaces. At 1460, Citi implies roughly 7% upside from current spot — a meaningful divergence from the pack.
At the other end, StanChart targets 1280, implying a 6.2% KRW rally from spot. That view prices an accelerated Fed easing path, a durable semiconductor upcycle, and a China stabilisation that lifts the entire EM Asia complex. UBS at 1300 is the second-most-aggressive KRW bull, consistent with its broader Asia FX framework that weights a weaker dollar and recovering regional trade flows.
The cluster between 1370 and 1385 — occupied by Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas, Commerzbank, Bank of America, and MUFG — represents the base-case consensus: gradual KRW appreciation, no sharp re-rating in either direction, and a China beta that is positive but not transformative. ING at 1425 with a neutral stance occupies the middle ground between the Citi outlier and the bearish cluster, pricing a slower convergence.
How does China beta factor into the USD/KRW outlook?
KRW carries one of the highest China betas among G20 currencies. Roughly 25% of Korean exports flow to China, and the semiconductor supply chain is deeply integrated with Chinese assembly and end-demand. When Chinese PMI data disappoints or property sector stress resurfaces, USD/KRW tends to gap higher — a pattern that has repeated multiple times since 2021.
The current spot level at 1364.83 implies markets are pricing a reasonably benign China outcome. Desks targeting sub-1350 — Deutsche Bank at 1350, Morgan Stanley at 1360 — are effectively pricing China stabilisation as a base case. The Citi bull case at 1460 is the clearest expression of China downside risk embedded in this consensus. The 180-point dispersion is, in large part, a proxy for disagreement on China's trajectory through Q4 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current USD/KRW spot rate?
As of October 1, 2026, USD/KRW trades at 1364.83.
What is the bank consensus target for USD/KRW by end-2026?
The 17-firm cross-bank median Dec-26 target is 1380.0, implying the pair trades approximately 1.10% below consensus at current spot.
Which bank has the highest USD/KRW target?
Citi holds the highest published target at 1460.0, the only bullish USD/KRW stance in the 14-firm disclosed set.
Which bank has the lowest USD/KRW target?
StanChart publishes the lowest target at 1280.0, implying a KRW rally of roughly 6.2% from current spot levels.
→ See the full Citi FX outlook for the complete rationale behind the 1460 year-end call and how it diverges from the 17-firm consensus.
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