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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Regime-conditional accuracy
Right now the FX market is in a low-volatility, calm regime with the US dollar broadly flat over the past three months. This combination is what we call the current regime — and the banks that forecast best in these conditions are not always the ones with the best long-run average.
Choose a regime
Accuracy pooled across the major dollar, euro, sterling and yen pairs. vs own avg is the headline read: how much better (or worse) a bank forecasts in this regime than across all regimes combined — a positive number marks a genuine regime specialist, not just a strong all-rounder.
| # | Bank | Directional acc. | vs own avg | Avg error | Forecasts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citi | 72% | -0.1pp | 3.8% | 54 | → |
| 2 | UOB | 57% | -9.3pp | 1.0% | 70 | → |
| 3 | JPM | 57% | -0.5pp | 3.3% | 30 | → |
| 4 | Rabo | 45% | -5.8pp | 3.2% | 22 | → |
| 5 | BARC | 43% | -21.1pp | 3.3% | 14 | → |
| 6 | ING | 39% | +13.7pp | 3.8% | 61 | → |
| 7 | Mizuho | 38% | -18.8pp | 3.1% | 21 | → |
| 8 | NMR | 33% | -8.9pp | 3.9% | 18 | → |
| 9 | RBC | 30% | -21.4pp | 3.6% | 10 | → |
| 10 | GS | 29% | -18.4pp | 4.0% | 102 | → |
| 11 | TMGM | 25% | +5.0pp | 2.3% | 8 | → |
| 12 | MS | 24% | -18.1pp | 3.9% | 25 | → |
| 13 | BNP | 22% | -13.3pp | 4.0% | 18 | → |
| 14 | StanChart | 21% | -8.8pp | 3.3% | 14 | → |
| 15 | SG | 22% | -16.8pp | 3.8% | 32 | → |
| 16 | CBK | 21% | -11.3pp | 4.5% | 28 | → |
| 17 | DB | 21% | -6.3pp | 4.3% | 33 | → |
| 18 | MUFG | 21% | -12.1pp | 4.7% | 33 | → |
| 19 | BofA | 16% | -19.0pp | 4.2% | 70 | → |
| 20 | UBS | 14% | -10.7pp | 4.4% | 43 | → |
| 21 | BNS | 11% | -7.5pp | 3.5% | 19 | → |
| 22 | HSBC | 8% | -19.2pp | 4.0% | 24 | → |
Tap any bank to see its full regime profile — how it performs across every market regime and time window, and where it ranks against its own long-run average.