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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 31 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 31 institutional desks. No promotion.
Regime-conditional accuracy
Right now the FX market is in a low-volatility, calm regime with the US dollar broadly flat over the past three months. This combination is what we call the current regime — and the banks that forecast best in these conditions are not always the ones with the best long-run average.
Choose a regime
Accuracy pooled across the major dollar, euro, sterling and yen pairs. vs own avg is the headline read: how much better (or worse) a bank forecasts in this regime than across all regimes combined — a positive number marks a genuine regime specialist, not just a strong all-rounder.
| # | Bank | Directional acc. | vs own avg | Avg error | Forecasts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ING | 79% | +16.1pp | 2.2% | 14 | → |
| 2 | UBS | 78% | +5.1pp | 2.4% | 9 | → |
| 3 | MS | 70% | -1.1pp | 2.5% | 10 | → |
| 4 | JPM | 67% | -2.4pp | 2.2% | 12 | → |
| 5 | BofA | 63% | +4.2pp | 1.0% | 8 | → |
| 6 | DB | 63% | +7.2pp | 1.5% | 8 | → |
| 7 | BARC | 50% | -19.0pp | 1.3% | 10 | → |
| 8 | MUFG | 50% | +6.3pp | 1.4% | 8 | → |
| 9 | GS | 43% | -23.8pp | 1.5% | 14 | → |
| 10 | CBK | 23% | -1.9pp | 2.4% | 13 | → |
Tap any bank to see its full regime profile — how it performs across every market regime and time window, and where it ranks against its own long-run average.