Which bank forecasts FX best in calm range conditions?

The best FX forecaster in calm range conditions is the bank with the strongest directional accuracy specifically in that regime — which is often not the bank with the best long-run average. This page ranks banks by their directional accuracy across the major currency pairs within calm range market conditions, and shows how each compares to its own all-regime baseline so you can spot genuine regime specialists.

Which bank has the best FX forecast accuracy?

There is no single bank that is most accurate across every currency and every market condition. Accuracy is regime-dependent: a bank that excels when volatility is low and the dollar is trending may underperform when markets turn choppy or range-bound. This page ranks banks by how accurately they have forecast the major currency pairs within a chosen market regime, so the leaders reflect specific conditions rather than a long-run average.

Who forecasts EUR/USD most accurately?

The most accurate EUR/USD forecaster is whichever bank has the strongest directional accuracy in the market regime you are looking at, and that varies as volatility and the dollar trend change. This page ranks banks by their directional accuracy across the major currency pairs — EUR/USD among them — within a chosen regime, rather than naming one bank for all time.

Regime-conditional accuracy

Which bank to follow in calm range markets

Right now the FX market is in a low-volatility, calm regime with the US dollar broadly flat over the past three months. This combination is what we call the current regime — and the banks that forecast best in these conditions are not always the ones with the best long-run average.

Realized volatility

5.2%

annualized

USD 90-day trend

+0.9%

dollar index move

Regime

Low volatility, dollar broadly flat

Choose a regime

Window

Rolling 1Y All-time 2026 2025

Banks ranked for calm range conditions

Accuracy pooled across the major dollar, euro, sterling and yen pairs. vs own avg is the headline read: how much better (or worse) a bank forecasts in this regime than across all regimes combined — a positive number marks a genuine regime specialist, not just a strong all-rounder.

#	Bank	Directional acc.	vs own avg	Avg error	Forecasts
1	Citi	71%	-1.8pp	3.9%	49	→
2	UOB	57%	-9.3pp	1.0%	70	→
3	JPM	52%	-3.9pp	3.1%	21	→
4	Rabo	45%	-5.8pp	3.2%	22	→
5	Mizuho	36%	-23.8pp	3.5%	14	→
6	ING	34%	+12.1pp	3.7%	50	→
7	GS	29%	-18.4pp	4.0%	102	→
8	TMGM	25%	+5.0pp	2.3%	8	→
9	NMR	23%	-11.4pp	4.3%	13	→
10	CBK	21%	-11.3pp	4.5%	28	→
11	BNP	18%	-16.3pp	4.6%	11	→
12	DB	18%	-9.2pp	4.4%	28	→
13	MUFG	18%	-14.6pp	4.9%	28	→
14	SG	15%	-22.8pp	4.0%	27	→
15	BofA	14%	-20.6pp	4.3%	65	→
16	StanChart	11%	-10.5pp	3.5%	9	→
17	MS	11%	-26.6pp	3.6%	18	→
18	BNS	11%	-7.5pp	3.5%	19	→
19	HSBC	5%	-21.3pp	4.2%	19	→
20	UBS	3%	-18.2pp	4.6%	34	→

Tap any bank to see its full regime profile — how it performs across every market regime and time window, and where it ranks against its own long-run average.

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Banks ranked for calm range conditions