Which bank forecasts FX best in high vol uncertain conditions?

The best FX forecaster in high vol uncertain conditions is the bank with the strongest directional accuracy specifically in that regime — which is often not the bank with the best long-run average. This page ranks banks by their directional accuracy across the major currency pairs within high vol uncertain market conditions, and shows how each compares to its own all-regime baseline so you can spot genuine regime specialists.

Which bank has the best FX forecast accuracy?

There is no single bank that is most accurate across every currency and every market condition. Accuracy is regime-dependent: a bank that excels when volatility is low and the dollar is trending may underperform when markets turn choppy or range-bound. This page ranks banks by how accurately they have forecast the major currency pairs within a chosen market regime, so the leaders reflect specific conditions rather than a long-run average.

Who forecasts EUR/USD most accurately?

The most accurate EUR/USD forecaster is whichever bank has the strongest directional accuracy in the market regime you are looking at, and that varies as volatility and the dollar trend change. This page ranks banks by their directional accuracy across the major currency pairs — EUR/USD among them — within a chosen regime, rather than naming one bank for all time.

Regime-conditional accuracy

Which bank to follow in high vol uncertain markets

Right now the FX market is in a low-volatility, calm regime with the US dollar broadly flat over the past three months. This combination is what we call the current regime — and the banks that forecast best in these conditions are not always the ones with the best long-run average.

Realized volatility

5.2%

annualized

USD 90-day trend

+0.9%

dollar index move

Regime

Low volatility, dollar broadly flat

Choose a regime

Window

Rolling 1Y All-time 2026

Banks ranked for high vol uncertain conditions

Accuracy pooled across the major dollar, euro, sterling and yen pairs. vs own avg is the headline read: how much better (or worse) a bank forecasts in this regime than across all regimes combined — a positive number marks a genuine regime specialist, not just a strong all-rounder.

#	Bank	Directional acc.	vs own avg	Avg error	Forecasts
1	Mizuho	100%	+40.5pp	2.8%	8	→
2	BARC	86%	+16.8pp	16.8%	21	→
3	SG	65%	+27.0pp	3.1%	17	→
4	BofA	65%	+30.6pp	5.7%	43	→
5	GS	69%	+21.0pp	11.9%	77	→
6	MUFG	60%	+27.6pp	3.1%	15	→
7	JPM	66%	+9.3pp	10.3%	29	→
8	MS	62%	+24.3pp	11.9%	29	→
9	Citi	62%	-11.6pp	19.9%	60	→
10	HSBC	40%	+13.4pp	12.1%	15	→
11	UBS	33%	+12.1pp	11.6%	27	→
12	DB	27%	-0.4pp	6.1%	30	→
13	UOB	9%	-57.4pp	2.1%	11	→
14	ING	13%	-9.4pp	7.1%	48	→
15	StanChart	9%	-12.5pp	5.3%	11	→

Tap any bank to see its full regime profile — how it performs across every market regime and time window, and where it ranks against its own long-run average.

Institutional FX coverage in your inbox

Banks ranked for high vol uncertain conditions