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FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Regime-conditional accuracy
Right now the FX market is in a low-volatility, calm regime with the US dollar broadly flat over the past three months. This combination is what we call the current regime — and the banks that forecast best in these conditions are not always the ones with the best long-run average.
Choose a regime
Accuracy pooled across the major dollar, euro, sterling and yen pairs. vs own avg is the headline read: how much better (or worse) a bank forecasts in this regime than across all regimes combined — a positive number marks a genuine regime specialist, not just a strong all-rounder.
| # | Bank | Directional acc. | vs own avg | Avg error | Forecasts | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CACIB | 88% | +29.2pp | 1.2% | 8 | → |
| 2 | UOB | 84% | +17.3pp | 0.8% | 74 | → |
| 3 | Citi | 81% | +8.7pp | 3.2% | 74 | → |
| 4 | RBC | 61% | +9.5pp | 2.7% | 23 | → |
| 5 | Mizuho | 59% | +1.7pp | 3.5% | 29 | → |
| 6 | NMR | 59% | +16.9pp | 4.1% | 22 | → |
| 7 | BARC | 54% | -9.8pp | 3.3% | 24 | → |
| 8 | JPM | 51% | -6.1pp | 3.8% | 49 | → |
| 9 | GS | 50% | +2.1pp | 4.3% | 76 | → |
| 10 | Danske | 44% | +8.7pp | 4.3% | 9 | → |
| 11 | CBK | 45% | +12.3pp | 6.0% | 20 | → |
| 12 | StanChart | 43% | +12.7pp | 4.7% | 28 | → |
| 13 | SG | 41% | +2.2pp | 3.5% | 44 | → |
| 14 | BNP | 41% | +5.4pp | 4.7% | 22 | → |
| 15 | Rabo | 40% | -11.3pp | 4.1% | 10 | → |
| 16 | HSBC | 39% | +11.2pp | 3.8% | 31 | → |
| 17 | MS | 38% | -4.2pp | 6.0% | 58 | → |
| 18 | BofA | 35% | -0.1pp | 4.9% | 104 | → |
| 19 | MUFG | 32% | -1.6pp | 4.9% | 41 | → |
| 20 | DB | 28% | +0.6pp | 5.8% | 71 | → |
| 21 | BNS | 26% | +8.1pp | 5.8% | 23 | → |
| 22 | UBS | 23% | -1.3pp | 4.4% | 60 | → |
| 23 | ING | 23% | -2.2pp | 4.7% | 94 | → |
Tap any bank to see its full regime profile — how it performs across every market regime and time window, and where it ranks against its own long-run average.