Which bank forecasts FX best in mixed conditions?

The best FX forecaster in mixed conditions is the bank with the strongest directional accuracy specifically in that regime — which is often not the bank with the best long-run average. This page ranks banks by their directional accuracy across the major currency pairs within mixed market conditions, and shows how each compares to its own all-regime baseline so you can spot genuine regime specialists.

Which bank has the best FX forecast accuracy?

There is no single bank that is most accurate across every currency and every market condition. Accuracy is regime-dependent: a bank that excels when volatility is low and the dollar is trending may underperform when markets turn choppy or range-bound. This page ranks banks by how accurately they have forecast the major currency pairs within a chosen market regime, so the leaders reflect specific conditions rather than a long-run average.

Who forecasts EUR/USD most accurately?

The most accurate EUR/USD forecaster is whichever bank has the strongest directional accuracy in the market regime you are looking at, and that varies as volatility and the dollar trend change. This page ranks banks by their directional accuracy across the major currency pairs — EUR/USD among them — within a chosen regime, rather than naming one bank for all time.

LIVE

08:56ZEurozone credit demand holds up better than expected under Middle East uncertainty 08:43ZJuly ECB Cheat Sheet: No lull in sight 07:23ZWebinar: What if… Oil surges back to $120/bbl?07:12ZRates Spark: Testing new highs 07:02ZBenign UK jobs market weakens the case for rate hikes 06:45ZUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Sound and fury'06:25ZFX Daily: Burnham’s first market wobble 02:18ZThe Commodities Feed: Oil stabilises despite Houthis’ Red Sea threat 15:36ZTop of the Morning: The AI Economy - A roadmap 15:11ZGlobal Rates: A long hot summer for front-end inflation markets 08:56ZEurozone credit demand holds up better than expected under Middle East uncertainty 08:43ZJuly ECB Cheat Sheet: No lull in sight 07:23ZWebinar: What if… Oil surges back to $120/bbl?07:12ZRates Spark: Testing new highs 07:02ZBenign UK jobs market weakens the case for rate hikes 06:45ZUBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Sound and fury'06:25ZFX Daily: Burnham’s first market wobble 02:18ZThe Commodities Feed: Oil stabilises despite Houthis’ Red Sea threat 15:36ZTop of the Morning: The AI Economy - A roadmap 15:11ZGlobal Rates: A long hot summer for front-end inflation markets

FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE

Institutional FX coverage in your inbox

Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 31 institutional desks. No promotion.

Regime-conditional accuracy

Which bank to follow in mixed markets

Right now the FX market is in a low-volatility, calm regime with the US dollar broadly flat over the past three months. This combination is what we call the current regime — and the banks that forecast best in these conditions are not always the ones with the best long-run average.

Realized volatility

3.7%

annualized

USD 90-day trend

+1.6%

dollar index move

Regime

Low volatility, dollar broadly flat

Choose a regime

calm range high vol uncertain mixed

Window

Rolling 1Y All-time 2026 2025

Banks ranked for mixed conditions

Accuracy pooled across the major dollar, euro, sterling and yen pairs. vs own avg is the headline read: how much better (or worse) a bank forecasts in this regime than across all regimes combined — a positive number marks a genuine regime specialist, not just a strong all-rounder.

#	Bank	Directional acc.	vs own avg	Avg error	Forecasts
1	RBC	82%	-5.7pp	1.6%	11	→
2	Mizuho	78%	+9.0pp	2.4%	9	→
3	BNP	78%	+21.5pp	2.9%	9	→
4	GS	71%	+4.8pp	1.5%	14	→
5	BARC	68%	-0.6pp	1.7%	19	→
6	MS	68%	-2.6pp	2.8%	19	→
7	NMR	64%	-11.4pp	1.6%	11	→
8	StanChart	64%	+1.1pp	3.4%	11	→
9	JPM	59%	-10.2pp	2.0%	17	→
10	BofA	52%	-6.0pp	1.7%	21	→
11	ING	53%	-9.2pp	2.7%	15	→
12	Citi	45%	-29.5pp	1.8%	11	→
13	SG	45%	-10.8pp	2.2%	11	→
14	HSBC	45%	+5.5pp	2.7%	11	→
15	DB	43%	-12.4pp	2.1%	21	→
16	MUFG	40%	-3.7pp	2.2%	20	→

Tap any bank to see its full regime profile — how it performs across every market regime and time window, and where it ranks against its own long-run average.