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AUD/USD spot at 0.7162 sits 0.88% above the cross-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 0.71, according to the full AUD/USD bank forecast table compiled across 25 institutional desks. The spread between the most bullish and most bearish year-end calls is nearly 10 cents, reflecting genuine disagreement on how the RBA-Fed rate gap resolves and how much China demand risk is already priced.
Key Numbers
- Live spot (Aug 30, 2026): 0.7162
- Cross-firm consensus, Dec-26 median: 0.71
- Dispersion (max − min, 25 firms): 0.10
- Gap, spot vs consensus: +0.88% (spot well above)
- Most bullish: Scotiabank at 0.75
- Most bearish: Mizuho at 0.65
Where Do the 25 Desks Stand?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 0.67 | bearish |
| J.P. Morgan | 0.68 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 0.70 | bullish |
| Goldman Sachs | 0.70 | bullish |
| MUFG | 0.70 | bullish |
| Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | bullish |
| Commerzbank | 0.71 | bullish |
| Société Générale | 0.712 | bullish |
| UOB | 0.72 | neutral |
| Rabobank | 0.72 | neutral |
| Deutsche Bank | 0.72 | bullish |
| ING | 0.73 | neutral |
| UBS | 0.73 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 0.75 | neutral |
Why Does Spot Trade Above the Consensus Median?
The implied consensus bias is bearish — the median Dec-26 target of 0.71 sits below the current 0.7162 handle. That configuration typically reflects one of two dynamics: either the market has run ahead of fundamentals that desks expect to reassert, or a cluster of forecasts was set when spot was lower and has not been revised upward fast enough.
The RBA-Fed rate differential is the primary structural variable here. The RBA has been slower to cut than the Fed through 2025-26, compressing the negative carry that weighed on AUD for much of the prior cycle. Desks that are bullish on AUD — the majority by count — are pricing a scenario in which the Fed continues easing while the RBA holds or cuts only shallowly, keeping the spread from widening back against the currency. Deutsche Bank and UBS, both targeting 0.72-0.73, sit in this camp.
The commodity beta adds a second layer. Iron ore remains the single largest swing factor for AUD outside of rate differentials. A stabilisation in Chinese steel demand — even at subdued levels — has historically been sufficient to keep AUD from repricing sharply lower. Desks with targets clustered around 0.70-0.72 appear to be pricing a muddle-through scenario for Chinese growth rather than a hard-landing outcome.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and What Rate Regimes Do They Price?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: Mizuho · Citi · BNP Paribas · JPMorgan +21 more
25 firms aggregated · as of 2026-08-30 21:04 UTC
Dispersion of 0.10 across 25 firms is wide by recent standards and points to genuine macro disagreement rather than anchoring noise.
Scotiabank at 0.75 is the top target. Its neutral stance alongside the highest target suggests the desk sees the pair as fairly valued near current levels but expects commodity and terms-of-trade support to lift AUD into year-end. The implicit rate-spread assumption is that the Fed cuts more aggressively than the RBA, widening the positive differential further.
At the other extreme, Mizuho at 0.65 — the floor of the distribution — prices a materially different outcome: either a more hawkish Fed path, a sharper RBA easing cycle, or a deterioration in Chinese demand that strips the commodity premium from AUD. Citi at 0.67 is the only other desk with an explicitly bearish stance in the published table, and its target is the second-lowest among the 14 most recently updated firms. Citi's bearish read likely embeds a view that spot's current level overstates both the RBA's relative hawkishness and China's near-term demand trajectory.
J.P. Morgan at 0.68 with a bullish stance presents a notable internal tension: a target well below spot, yet a directional bias described as bullish. This configuration is consistent with a desk that expects AUD to weaken from current levels toward 0.68 but views that level as a buying opportunity on a longer horizon — or that the bullish label reflects the pair-space conversion from a broader USD-bearish framework.
Morgan Stanley at 0.71 with a bullish stance is effectively a hold call at current levels — the target is fractionally below spot, implying minimal downside is expected.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the AUD/USD consensus forecast for December 2026?
The cross-firm median target across 25 institutional desks is 0.71, compiled as of the week of August 30, 2026.
How far is AUD/USD spot from the consensus?
Spot at 0.7162 is 0.88% above the Dec-26 median of 0.71, placing the pair well above where the consensus expects it to finish the year — an implied bearish tilt for the remainder of 2026.
Which bank has the highest AUD/USD forecast?
Scotiabank holds the top target at 0.75, a full 10 cents above the most bearish call from Mizuho at 0.65.
How wide is the disagreement across banks?
Dispersion — measured as the gap between the highest and lowest Dec-26 targets across all 25 firms — is 0.10, indicating substantial divergence in views on the RBA-Fed differential and China's commodity demand outlook.
→ See the full Scotiabank FX outlook at Scotiabank's forecast page for the rate-spread assumptions behind the 0.75 year-end target.
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