EUR/USD Forecast: UBS Predicts Powerful Surge to 1.20 as Dollar Weakens in 2025 - CryptoRank

What the desk is arguing

UBS forecasts EUR/USD to reach 1.20 by 2025, driven by a weakening dollar. This is a decidedly bullish call that implies a 5% rally from spot around 1.1500.

The thesis rests on expectations of Fed easing and a narrowing rate differential. UBS sees the dollar's structural overvaluation correcting, providing sustained support for EUR/USD.

The desk implicitly rejects the notion that Eurozone headwinds or geopolitical risks will cap gains. Instead, it positions EUR/USD as a key beneficiary of dollar weakness in 2025.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our consensus for Dec-26 stands at 1.2200, with a range of 1.1600 (Morgan Stanley) to 1.2500 (Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank). UBS's 1.20 target is below the consensus but within the range, suggesting a bullish but not extreme view.

Firms with Dec-26 targets above 1.20 (aligned with UBS's bullish stance): - Goldman Sachs: 1.2500 - Deutsche Bank: 1.2500 - MUFG: 1.2400 - ING: 1.2200 - BofA: 1.2200 - Barclays: 1.2100

Firms with Dec-26 targets at or below 1.20 (less bullish or bearish): - JPMorgan: 1.2000 - Morgan Stanley: 1.1600

How other firms see it

Goldman Sachs shares the bullish outlook with a 1.2500 Dec-26 target, the highest among peers. Deutsche Bank and MUFG also align, forecasting 1.2500 and 1.2400 respectively.

In contrast, Morgan Stanley is the lone bear, targeting 1.1600 by Dec-26, implying a decline from current levels. JPMorgan and Barclays are more conservative, with targets of 1.2000 and 1.2100, neither fully endorsing UBS's surge call.

Overall, the majority of banks lean bullish, but the degree of conviction varies sharply, with UBS's 1.20 call sitting near the lower end of the bullish consensus.