FX Daily: A busy week ahead
At a Glance
ING expects EUR/USD to climb back to 1.15 in July, arguing that US payrolls above 100k are already priced in and further USD rallies should be faded. The desk sees ECB's Sintra forum as unlikely to deliver a dovish tilt ahead of Thursday's CPI test. Consensus for EUR/USD at Dec-26 is 1.2000, with a wide range from 1.1200 to 1.2500, placing ING's call near the upper end. The key catalyst is Friday's payrolls and any escalation in Gulf risk could upend this view.
Key Takeaways
- 01ING flags US data as key this week, expects payrolls above 100k but not enough for two Fed hikes, preferring to fade USD rallies.
- 02ECB's Sintra forum unlikely to be dovish ahead of Thursday's CPI test; EUR/USD expected to climb back to 1.15 in July.
- 03Consensus Dec-26 EUR/USD at 1.2000 with a wide range (1.1200-1.2500); ING's near-term call is near the upper bound.
- 04Gulf risk (Strait of Hormuz) is the key upside risk to USD; any escalation would invalidate the bullish EUR view.
Full Analysis
What the desk is arguing
ING argues that the dollar's recent rally is showing signs of fatigue and requires hawkish data to sustain, per the full note [ing-think]. The desk expects US payrolls to come in above 100k for the third consecutive month (their call is 110k, consensus 115k), but believes this would be insufficient for markets to price in two Fed hikes by year-end. Consequently, they maintain a preference for fading new USD rallies.
Supporting this view, ING notes that oil prices have not meaningfully responded to the latest US-Iran escalation, suggesting investors remain optimistic. However, any disruption to Strait of Hormuz flows would provide a clear bullish USD catalyst. The desk also does not expect the Sintra forum to deliver a dovish tilt by the ECB ahead of Thursday's key CPI test.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD at Dec-26 is 1.2000 (range 1.1200–1.2500). Individual firm forecasts vary widely: goldman targets 1.2000, jpmorgan at 1.1300, deutschebank at 1.2500, mufg at 1.2400, while citi and danskebank are at 1.1200. ING's call for 1.15 by July sits near the upper end of the near-term range but below our median Dec-26 estimate.
This view aligns with the consensus that EUR/USD will appreciate, but the timing is more aggressive. Our recent research pillar [eurusd-divergence] highlights a 5% gap between spot (1.1401) and Dec-26 consensus (1.2000), supporting the constructive bias.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms (bullish EUR): deutschebank (1.2500 Dec-26), mufg (1.2400), goldman (1.2500 after revision), ubs (1.1800). Contrary firms (bearish EUR): citi (1.1200 Dec-26), danskebank (1.1200), scotiabank (1.1200 Dec-26 after revision to 1.2200 Mar26).
Related pairs: EUR/GBP, where a similar divergence theme may play out. ECB rate path and Fed pricing are key cross-asset inputs, with EUR/USD trajectory closely tied to interest rate differentials.
What the calendar says
No high-impact events are scheduled in the next 30 days for this jurisdiction.
Market Implications
Watch for USD selling pressure if payrolls print near 110k and fail to reprice hawkish Fed bets. A break above 1.1500 in EUR/USD would confirm the bullish bias, while a close below 1.1200 would invalidate it.
EUR/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Goldman Sachs | Bearish | 1.1200 |
UOB | Bearish | 1.1140 |
ABN AMRO | Bullish | 1.1500 |
From the original
Articles FX Daily: A busy week ahead 08:13 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download US data is in focus this week. We expect payrolls again above 100k, but the dollar is still embedding plenty of positives, and we maintain a preference for f
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FX Daily: Fed minutes shouldn’t rock the boat
Per the full note from ING, the desk argues that today's September FOMC minutes should not surprise on the dovish side given the hawkish dot plot, yet softish post-meeting data raises the bar for any positive dollar reaction — leaving the greenback stabilising near DXY 102.0 with risks skewed to the upside. The supporting evidence is two-sided: four dot-plot members still expect two further hikes this year versus only two expecting no tightening, while markets continue to firmly price a December move despite softer data since September. Against our internal consensus, the median EUR/USD Dec-26 target sits at 1.1634 with a range of 1.1200–1.2000, far above current spot at 1.1253, meaning ING's own 1.1700 Dec-26 forecast sits in the upper half of the firm spread. Oil remains the wildcard — Brent briefly dipped below $100/bbl before recovering on reports of stepped-up Iranian strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — and with no high-impact events on the near-term calendar, the minutes and energy flows are the dominant catalysts.