Lagarde Exit Won't Derail ECB Path, UBS Says, Backing Euro Recovery to 1.16 - BigGo Finance
From the original
Lagarde Exit Won't Derail ECB Path, UBS Says, Backing Euro Recovery to 1.16 BigGo Finance
Related speeches
4 itemsUBS: Lagarde's Early Departure Won't Alter ECB Course; Market Bets on Another 75bp of Hikes Look Too Aggressive - BigGo Finance
UBS sees euro recovering to $1.16 by year-end, says slide to $1.11 overshoots fundamentals
UBS is buying EUR/USD weakness, arguing the slide from 1.17 to near 1.11 has overshot fundamentals and calling for a recovery to 1.16 by end-2026. Per the full note [source], the desk pins the drop on sentiment — stronger US data, diesel-export-ban chatter, rising global bond yields and French budget worries — rather than a deteriorating euro-area economy. The call rests on three legs: October Fed hike bets nearly fully priced out, Brent approaching $80 by next summer, and a French budget deal likely via Article 49.3 that would narrow OAT-Bund spreads. That 1.16 target sits exactly on our cross-firm consensus median for Dec-26, with spot at 1.1253 leaving roughly 3% of upside. No high-impact calendar events sit in the way over the next 30 days, so the trade's catalysts are spread-driven and headline-dependent.
More like this
5 itemsWhy Goldman Thinks Chinese Exporters Will Keep Selling Dollars For Yuan - Exchange Rates UK
Euro To Dollar Price News, Forecast: UBS Expects 1.16 Vs USD By December - Exchange Rates UK
Goldman’s 2027 Global FX Outlook: Timing the Turn - The Dark Side Of The Boom
Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls back below $50 amid mayhem in US bond markets - FXStreet