UBS: Lagarde's Early Departure Won't Alter ECB Course; Market Bets on Another 75bp of Hikes Look Too Aggressive - BigGo Finance
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UBS: Lagarde's Early Departure Won't Alter ECB Course; Market Bets on Another 75bp of Hikes Look Too Aggressive BigGo Finance
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4 itemsLagarde Exit Won't Derail ECB Path, UBS Says, Backing Euro Recovery to 1.16 - BigGo Finance
MUFG sees ECB hike this week, flags downside risk for euro
The desk anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will execute its second 25bp rate hike this week, but sees a distinct risk to the euro if President Lagarde fails to deliver a clear hawkish signal regarding future policy. Per the full note from MUFG, while a hike is already anticipated by the market, the focus will pivot to Lagarde's press conference, which might influence the euro significantly—specifically, if there is no indication of an additional hike before year-end. MUFG also flags potential downside risks, including rising natural gas prices and upcoming German state elections, that may pressure the EUR/USD closer toward the lower end of the recent trading range of 1.1400 to 1.1800, given a current spot at 1.1446.
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